A Tale Of Two Consumers: Why FMCG Growth In MEA Is Moving In Two Directions

(MENAFN- Mid-East Info)

FMCG consumers are increasingly switching between premium and value products depending on category, occasion, household economics and perceived value. Rising incomes create volume opportunities for FMCG brands in the MEA region, while the expanding affluent populations in some urban centers create new potential to tap into premium markets.

New global research from NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) shows that consumers in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) are increasingly moving between premium and value purchasing mindsets, depending on what they are buying, what they need and what they believe they are getting in return. The findings come from NIQ's latest global report, A Tale of Two Consumers: The Polarized Mindsets Reshaping Global Consumption. Borderless Finance. AI-Native.

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Building on NIQ's generational spending research with World Data Lab, the report shows a nuanced consumer reality across the MEA region. Rising income mobility in many markets is creating runway for mass-market volume growth while premium opportunities are expanding in selected categories and countries. Across the board, winning depends on understanding individual consumer behaviours and buying triggers.

Previous classifications of consumers have tended to group them as value, mainstream or premium shoppers. This does not capture the fluidity between these mindsets: the way consumers trade up or trade down depending on category, need state, perceived value and whether a product aligns with what matters in that moment. NIQ's report shows that the same consumer can shift between value and premium purchases.

Key findings include:

Affluent consumers spent $35.9 trillion globally in 2025, surpassing spending by the much larger core consumer population, who spent $31.6 trillion. Across all age groups, consumers are increasingly alternating between premium and value-seeking behaviours, depending on category, occasion and need state. This shift is creating a“barbell effect”, with demand concentrating at premium and value tiers while mainstream products that dominate the middle market come under increasing pressure. While middle-market growth is flat in mature markets in the West, this segment still offers significant volume opportunities in certain markets across MEA. Even so, the direction of travel is clear: as a market matures, mainstream products come under increased pressure. A one-size-fits-all strategy will not work for brands in MEA – brands and retailers will need to tailor pricing strategies and product portfolios to accommodate consumer preferences and economic realities across different territories.

The mass market still lives in MEA, but polarisation is showing in some markets

The global NIQ research finds that the same consumers are moving between“upgrade” and“price-constrained” purchasing mindsets, carefully choosing when it is worthwhile to pay a premium and when it makes sense to trade down to save money. The result is a market in which the traditional“average” consumer is becoming a less useful target.

In the MEA region, however, this trend is not playing out in a uniform way across each country, says Andrey Dvoychenkov, General Manager Arabian Peninsula and Pakistan.“Whereas mass market growth is stalling or even declining in most mature markets we track, demand for mainstream products is still accelerating in MEA countries where the middle-class is expanding.”

“But polarisation tends to arrive as a market matures. Once consumers reorganise around premium and value choices, reclaiming the middle becomes significantly harder,” says Dvoychenkov.

In some categories, growth in MEA countries will be driven by broader household participation, affordability, or distribution. In others, it will come from premium purchases as newly affluent consumers look for products that deliver on quality, convenience, or status.

“Demographic and economic trends can help brands and retailers identify where growth is most likely to emerge,” says Dvoychenkov.“But in every market, growth still depends on understanding when consumers are willing to upgrade, look for value, or remain loyal to trusted, familiar products.”

Two case studies in polarisation: Egypt versus Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia and Egypt offer contrasting examples of how polarisation is playing out in different territories. In Saudi Arabia, premium players have gained nearly three percentage points of share and value players more than 1.5 points over the past three years, while the mid-tier has lost approximately five points.

Egypt, meanwhile, illustrates a more value-led form of polarisation. Although the middle market is gradually contracting, most of the share is moving toward value players and premium brands are largely sustaining their position. These trajectories show why a single premiumisation or value strategy cannot be applied consistently across markets.

“The broader lesson from these examples for FMCG brands and retailers is clear,” says Dvoychenkov. “Consumer polarisation may be global, but the route to growth is local – shaped by market conditions, category dynamics and consumers' expectations of value.”

Polarisation is even more pronounced in e-commerce. In Saudi Arabia, mid-tier products account for 59.9% of total-market sales but only 49.2% online. Premium and value players capture a greater share of the digital basket. Similar online shifts are visible in Egypt, even though offline sales do not show the same degree of differentiation.

This suggests that e-commerce amplifies consumer polarisation. Greater price transparency, wider assortment, more visible promotions, richer product information and easier substitution allow shoppers to move more quickly toward either a differentiated premium proposition or a compelling value alternative.

“After years of inflation, uncertainty, digital comparison and improving private label quality, consumers across MEA have learned to manage the basket more deliberately,” says Dvoychenkov.“They protect the purchases that feel are meaningful, functional or identity-reinforcing, and they optimise purchases where the premium no longer feels justified.”

Some of the key takeaways for FMCG manufacturers and retailers in MEA are:

MEA's emerging mass market remains an important volume opportunity, but manufacturers must balance this opportunity with premiumisation at the upper end and increasingly sophisticated value-seeking strategies at the lower end. Review each category and market separately. Every product must establish itself as a premium worth paying for, a smart value choice, an accessible mass-market proposition or a trusted staple worth keeping in the basket. However, the balance between premium, mainstream and value can differ materially by market and category. Brands need to understand not only what consumers are willing to pay, but where, when and in what format they are prepared to buy. Promotions can help sustain premium purchases in categories like Homecare, Health and Beauty. Consumers may be willing to upgrade, but still need a stronger value equation to justify the higher price point. Value consumers are increasingly making needs-driven decisions, buying what they need and underscoring growing pressure on traditional brand loyalty models. Independent brands that use promotions effectively can remain competitive and mitigate private label substitution, particularly where shoppers value trusted brands but need a more compelling price. Pack architecture needs to work harder in a polarised market. Pricing, pack sizes, promotions and channels must work together to make products relevant to consumers at different points of the value spectrum. Treat e-commerce as a distinct competitive shelf: improve digital content, search visibility, pricing, promotions and retail-media execution.

About NIQ

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action.

With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world's population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full ViewTM- helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next.

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This press release may contain forward-looking statements regarding anticipated consumer behaviours, market trends, and industry developments. These statements reflect current expectations and projections based on available data, historical patterns, and various assumptions. Words such as“expects,”“anticipates,”“projects,”“believes,”“forecasts,” and

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