'Big Short' Michael Burry Warns Of Dollar 'Train Wreck' - Bets On Fine Wine Against AI, Quantum And US Debt Risks

• Burry expects a“colossal train wreck” within five to 10 years as the costs of U.S. fiscal irresponsibility come due.
• He estimated that a 30% to 40% dollar decline could generate 45% to 65% currency-driven gains, with wine investments potentially growing four times or five times over 20 years.
• Fine-wine indices have fallen 25% to 30% from their 2022 peak, creating what Burry sees as a buying opportunity.

“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry is turning to fine wine as an unconventional hedge against a“colossal train wreck” for the U.S. dollar, driven by mounting federal debt and the growing risks that AI and quantum computing pose to digital assets.

Burry said on Thursday that he is buying deeply discounted European fine wine and keeping most of it in bonded storage outside the U.S., viewing the scarce physical asset as a hedge against dollar weakness, inflation and potential financial-system disruption.

“The idea is to take advantage of the reserve currency's remaining strength to buy cyclically depressed, novatable real assets outside its jurisdiction,” Burry said on Substack.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained 0.03% to 99.06 on Thursday, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell 1.7%, IBM (IBM) dropped 2.5% and Bitcoin (BTC) declined 1.4%. 

All three underperformed the broader market, as the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) each slipped about 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 1.1%. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate was near 0.813 and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.97%, highlighting mounting U.S. borrowing-cost pressures. 

Burry Warns Of An AI-Quantum Threat 

Burry warned that AI and quantum computing could eventually put crypto, bank and investment accounts, pensions, Social Security and health-insurance records“on the run.”

He cited IBM's plan to deliver its large-scale, fault-tolerant Starling quantum computer by 2029 as evidence of the technology's rapid progress. Financial systems will adapt, Burry said, but the transition could move too quickly for digital claims to remain continuously secure and verifiable.“There certainly will be gaps,” he added.“We hope they just hurt and do not graduate to catastrophe.”

Burry said gold already reflects“too much debt, too little monetary restraint” and mounting AI and quantum risks. Fine wine, however, offers another form of protection: it is tangible, globally traded and steadily becomes scarcer as bottles are consumed.

US Debt Risks A 'Colossal Train Wreck' 

Burry does not expect the dollar to lose its reserve-currency status imminently.“The idea is not that the dollar loses reserve status tomorrow,” he said.“Rather, over the next 5-10 years, I see a colossal train wreck as the bills of fiscal irresponsibility come due.” 

The dollar's share of allocated global reserves has declined from 72% in 2001 to slightly below 57% in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first sub-57% reading since 1995, according to Burry.

With central banks increasingly favoring gold, Burry believes demand for scarce hard assets could strengthen. His strategy targets elite wines from producers including Petrus, Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Margaux, Mouton Rothschild and Sassicaia.“What would not have to worry about any of this?” he said.“Bonded fine wine stored at London City Bond, purchased with today's strong dollar.”

Fine Wine Becomes Burry's Dollar Short

Since European fine wine attracts buyers using pounds, euros, francs and Asian currencies, Burry views it as an asset supported by a global, multicurrency market.

If the dollar weakens 30% to 40% against that international bid over two decades, he estimated that even a flat wine market could deliver gains of 45% to 65% in dollar terms. Combined with organic appreciation and a deeply discounted purchase price, an investment could potentially grow four times or five times over 20 years. Burry called bonded fine wine a“dollar short extraordinaire,” offering exposure without leverage, margin calls, option decay or an expiration date.

Fine-Wine Slump Creates Buying Opportunity 

Burry said fine wine has endured a nearly three-year bear market, with Liv-ex indices falling 25% to 30% from their October 2022 peak in“the deepest broad correction in the modern era.” Some marquee Bordeaux and Burgundy wines are trading as much as 75% below their issuance prices.

Burry also noted that fine wine generated a 4.1% annual real return between 1900 and 2012 after estimated storage and insurance costs. Given today's depressed entry point, he believes selective buyers could potentially earn long-term real returns of 6% to 8%.“Buying real assets 25–30% below a cyclical peak - and up to 75% below issuance prices for some marquee Bordeaux and Burgundies - this is the time,” Burry said.

Burry said he reviewed 700 wines this year but bought only around 40, targeting average discounts of 18% to 20%. He allocates about 15% to 20% of purchases to future celebrations and gifts, arguing that the buying discounts can effectively provide“free wine for a lifetime” while the remaining bottles are appreciated.

Burry recommended limiting the allocation to less than 10% of total wealth and using reputable dealers and independent bonded storage to reduce counterfeiting, ownership and storage risks.“Buy low, be very patient, then sell high or enjoy it,” he said.

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