AI Boom Gives Global Growth Lift: IMF
The IMF described the two developments as opposing forces acting on the world economy.
“One way to think about it is that the global economy is kind of being pulled in opposite directions,” IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack told reporters here.
“On the one hand, we have a negative supply shock from energy prices,” she said.“And on the other hand, we have a positive demand shock from the AI-led technology cycle.”
The adverse shock extends beyond energy markets. Higher prices for food and fertiliser are also placing pressure on the global economy, Kozack said.
AI investment, meanwhile, is supporting economic activity in the United States and parts of Asia.
“What we see in the near term is that AI is clearly having a positive impact on growth through the positive demand shock that I talked about,” Kozack said.
“So the investment demand for AI is strong, and that is giving a boost to growth in the U.S. and in some countries in Asia,” she added.
Growing demand for semiconductors and other technology products was also increasing exports from some countries, the IMF said.
The longer-term economic impact will depend on whether the rapid adoption of AI translates into higher productivity.
“In the medium term, what we're really going to be looking for on the AI side is AI leading to a boost to productivity and is that leading to a boost to growth?” Kozack said.
The IMF does not yet have updated figures for AI's potential contribution to medium-term global growth. It is continuing to study the technology's effects on productivity, employment and labour markets.
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