Bitcoin Price Outlook: ETF Flows And May High Rejection

(MENAFN- DailyFX (IG)) Bitcoin: May High Rejection And ETF Flows At Forefront

Bitcoin retreats after rejecting the May high as ETF flows remain supportive, with a break above $82,814 potentially opening the way to $100,000.

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Written by

Axel Rudolph FSTA

Chief Technical Analyst

Publication date 2026-09-10T10:57:24+0100 Bitcoin: ETF Flows Face Test as BTC Rejects May High

Bitcoin has pulled back after failing to overcome its May high, putting the cryptocurrency's recent rally at an important technical crossroads. After climbing above $82,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin has since retreated towards $78,000 as investors reassess the outlook for US interest rates, bond yields and risk assets.

The rejection is significant because the May highs around $82,035.16-to-$82,814.03 represent the most important resistance area between Bitcoin's recent recovery and the $100,000 region. A sustained break above that barrier could open the way towards $90,000 and eventually the January high at $97,913.08, putting the psychologically important $100,000 level back within reach.

However, Bitcoin needs to demonstrate that the current pullback is simply a consolidation phase rather than the beginning of another reversal.

Bitcoin stalls at major resistance

Bitcoin's latest rally began in earnest in mid-August, with the cryptocurrency rising roughly 30% from its summer lows. The advance carried Bitcoin above $80,000 and eventually to a $82,292.93 in early September, its highest level since May.

The subsequent rejection means Bitcoin has so far failed to complete the breakout that bulls had been hoping for.

Bitcoin fell to $77,628.75 on 8 September, reversing part of the previous week's advance as traders became increasingly cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's 16 September meeting. Markets were pricing in a roughly 62% probability of a Fed rate increase, according to the LME FedWatch Tool.

By 10 September, Bitcoin was trading close to $78,000, leaving it roughly 5% below the May resistance zone.

The setback is not yet technically decisive but would become so if a fall through the 23 August and 2 September low at $76,251.41-to-$75,556.35 were to be seen.

ETF flows provide an important source of support

One of the biggest differences between Bitcoin's latest rally and its earlier 2026 weakness has been the recovery in spot ETF demand.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $3.52 billion of net inflows during August, according to SoSoValue-derived data, making it the strongest monthly performance of the year. The funds recorded net inflows on 16 of 21 trading sessions, while nine consecutive sessions between 17 and 27 August saw positive flows.

The improvement followed billions of dollars of redemptions during May and June, when Bitcoin's decline was accompanied by a sharp deterioration in ETF demand.

ETF buying also intensified around the time Bitcoin began its latest surge. The funds recorded daily inflows of approximately $297.6 million on 17 August, $517.2 million on 19 August and $606.3 million on 20 August.

The relationship between price and flows has subsequently remained important.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $730.8 million of net inflows on 3 September alone, according to CoinGlass data. Across the three trading days around the start of September, ETF inflows reached roughly $1.01 billion.

The magnitude of those flows suggests that the latest rally has not simply been driven by speculative futures positioning. Regulated investment vehicles have once again become an important source of demand.

However, the recent flow picture has become less consistent. That matters because Bitcoin is now attempting to overcome a major technical resistance level while the macroeconomic environment is becoming less supportive.

ETF demand needs to remain strong

The key question for Bitcoin bulls is whether ETF demand can remain resilient if the cryptocurrency continues to trade below $82,800.

Strong inflows provide an important underlying source of demand, but persistent outflows could make it significantly harder for Bitcoin to break through the May high.

The latest data are encouraging in that respect. The $1.01 billion of ETF inflows recorded over three trading sessions demonstrates that investors have been willing to increase exposure even while short-term Treasury yields remain elevated. Analysts suggested this could indicate that monetary policy is becoming less of a binding constraint on Bitcoin demand.

That would be an important development.

Earlier in the year, Bitcoin was particularly sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations, with the prospect of higher rates contributing to the cryptocurrency's sharp decline. If ETF investors continue buying despite elevated yields, the market may be signalling that structural demand is beginning to outweigh some of the traditional macro headwinds.

The opposite would also be true. A sustained period of ETF outflows while Bitcoin remains below $82,800 would weaken the bullish case and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

Rising yields are the latest obstacle

The macroeconomic backdrop has become more challenging since Bitcoin first approached the May high.

US Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year yield around 4.85% on 10 September after reaching its highest level since 2023. Higher oil prices are also reigniting concerns about inflation, with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

This is particularly important because higher inflation could constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy.

Markets are now increasingly focused on the September Fed meeting, while US inflation data will provide another crucial indication of whether policymakers can leave rates unchanged or need to tighten policy further.

That creates a potentially awkward backdrop for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency can benefit from lower yields, a weaker dollar and improving liquidity, but higher oil prices and renewed inflation pressures threaten to push the cryptocurrency in the opposite direction.

The dollar has nevertheless remained relatively weak, while Bitcoin has shown greater resilience than might have been expected given the rise in yields. That resilience is one reason the ETF flow picture is so important.

Bitcoin bullish scenario

Provided Bitcoin manages to hold above its 23 August low at $75,556.35, another up leg towards the early May highs at $82,035.16-to-$82,814.03 remains at hand. For this to become more likely an advance above the 9 September high at $79,765.87 would need to be seen.

In case of the May peak at $82,814.03 to be exceeded, the December 2025 lows at $83,871.20-to-$84,445.35 would be eyed, followed by the 25 January low at $86,013.03, minor psychological resistance around $90,000, the January peak at $97,913.08 and the major psychological $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin bearish scenario

Only a continued slide and fall through the 23 August low at $75,556.35 may lead to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-to-June decline around $73,250 being revisited.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 6 September high at $80,575.21

Medium-term outlook: neutral while above the 23 August low at $75,556.35 but below the $82,814.03 May peak

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView Important to know

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