Belgium's June Heat Wave Killed Far More Than Models Predicted

(MENAFN) Belgium's late-June heat wave drove excess mortality well beyond what forecasting models had anticipated, with 2,112 more deaths than normal recorded between June 18 and July 12, health institute Sciensano reported, according to a news agency on Wednesday.

That toll translates to a relative excess mortality rate of 31% — the highest additional death count and the steepest relative excess mortality figure logged during any major heat episode in Belgium since 2000.

The pattern of who was affected also shifted. Whereas earlier heat waves disproportionately claimed the lives of older women, June's episode struck a notably higher share of older men and working-age men as well.

Impact varied by region, with Wallonia bearing the brunt of the crisis and a particularly sharp spike registered in the Liege district.

Sciensano's scientific models had already forecast elevated excess mortality based on meteorological and environmental risk indicators, including overnight minimum temperatures. Yet actual death tolls outstripped even those projections, especially during the peak stretch of June 27 and 28.

Koen Blot, head of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Sciensano, suggested that underlying health conditions and socioeconomic factors might help account for the gap between projected and observed mortality.

Speaking at a Wednesday press conference, Blot was careful to stress that these explanations remain “hypotheses.”

Public Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said a new heat preparedness plan is already in development, arguing that the current Heat and Ozone Plan falls short as a full-fledged readiness strategy. He noted the existing framework functions largely as a phase-based communication tool, while the government is now working toward rolling out an integrated, inter-federal "Heat-Health Preparedness & Response Plan" by summer 2027.

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