Why The Swiss Federal Budget Is So Hard To Predict

(MENAFN- Swissinfo) Company taxes have come to the rescue of the Swiss federal budget, helping to turn a projected CHF700 million ($865 million) deficit into a CHF800 million surplus. This content was published on September 10, 2026 - 09:00 5 minutes

I write about the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence technology and its possible impacts on society. Originally from England, I spent some time at the BBC in London before moving to Switzerland to join SWI swissinfo.

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Last month the finance ministry surprised parliament by revising its forecast for federal revenues upwards by CHF1.9 billion. The increase is more than enough to offset increased spending, including additional defence expenditure.

The main driver of increased revenues is corporate taxation. The government now expects federal profit-tax receipts to be around CHF1.4 billion higher than forecast in the 2026 budget.

Why did the numbers look so different in the space of a few months? Where did the extra CHF1.4 billion in corporate tax receipts suddenly materialise from? And can Switzerland expect to unearth more golden eggs from the same source in future?

Left-leaning political parties have their own answers. They have again accused the finance ministry of painting a deliberately gloomy picture in early budget forecasts to push through spending cuts.

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“By systematically underestimating revenues, the Federal Council [government] is trying to justify cuts in public spending and new privileges for the wealthiest and large corporations,” stated Social Democrat parliamentarian Tamara Funiciello, when the more optimistic budget scenario was presented last month.

Not the first time

There is a long history of such complaints. In 2018 the government's ordinary financing balance ended CHF2.6 billion better than originally budgeted. In 2013 an expected CHF400 million deficit turned into a CHF1.3 billion surplus.

But the finance ministry denies misleading parliament and the public. Ordinary revenue forecasts have been out by 0.3% on average between 2016 and 2025, the ministry said.

The latest corporate tax windfall, attributable to the 2027 budget, can be traced to a small number of very large, and unnamed, companies. Three-quarters of all corporate tax receipts are concentrated among 0.5% of total companies in Switzerland, according to the government.

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