Afd Projected To Score Historic Victory In German State Election, But Path To Power Remains Unclear

(MENAFN- Live Mint) Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to score a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, potentially making it the strongest political force in the region and intensifying pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government.

Exit polls and early vote counts reported by German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF put the AfD at around 44%, more than double the roughly 21% it received in the previous state election five years ago.

However, it remained unclear whether the party would secure an outright majority in the state legislature - a result that would allow it to govern alone and potentially break through Germany's long-standing political“firewall” against cooperation with the far right.

A historic result for AfD

The projected result would be the biggest electoral breakthrough in the AfD's 13-year history.

Ulrich Siegmund, the party's 35-year-old candidate for governor, described the performance as historic.

“We have written history,” Siegmund told ARD, saying voters had sent a message that“things cannot carry on like this.”

He also directly attacked Merz, arguing that the chancellor had helped the AfD's campaign.

“A very good campaigner for us in this election campaign was Friedrich Merz,” Siegmund said, adding that every day Merz remained in the chancellery was“one too many.”

AfD far ahead of Merz's CDU

The result represents a major setback for Merz's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years.

The CDU was projected to receive around 18.5%, roughly half of its previous support.

The Left Party, Social Democratic Party and Greens were each projected to win around 9%.

The new Sahra Wagenknecht-led BSW party was hovering around the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.

The final distribution of seats will determine whether AfD can reach an outright majority.

Why an AfD majority would matter

Germany has 16 federal states, known as Länder, which have significant responsibilities, including education and aspects of security and policing.

An AfD-led state government would therefore give the party direct control over important areas of public policy.

It would also carry enormous symbolic significance.

Modern Germany has never had a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national government, state government or major-city administration.

A victory in Saxony-Anhalt would therefore represent a major breakthrough for a party that has been kept out of government by other mainstream parties.

AfD's state branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified by Germany's domestic intelligence agency as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation. The party strongly rejects such accusations.

The political firewall remains

Even if AfD falls short of an outright majority, it is expected to face a difficult path to forming a government.

Mainstream German parties have maintained a policy of refusing to cooperate with AfD, often described as the“firewall” or Brandmauer.

CDU officials signalled after the projections that they had no intention of abandoning that position.

Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU's national general secretary, described the result as“very difficult” for the party but rejected the idea of working with AfD.

That leaves the possibility that AfD could win the largest share of votes but still be unable to form a government.

AfD's policy agenda

Siegmund has campaigned heavily on migration.

Among his priorities are the deportation of people he describes as being in Germany illegally, tougher deportation policies and reducing what he calls incentives for migrants to come to Germany and use the country's social welfare system.

He has also proposed beginning a lengthy process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about what he describes as disinformation.

The party also wants major changes to education and family policy.

AfD supports allowing home schooling, which is generally not permitted in Germany. It also wants schools to stop officially displaying the rainbow flag and instead ensure that the German national flag is flown.

AfD and the Russia-Ukraine war

The party opposes the use of German taxpayers' money to support Ukraine and wants Germany to push for an end to sanctions against Russia.

However, these foreign-policy issues are largely outside the authority of an individual state government and are primarily determined at the federal level.

What the result means for Friedrich Merz

The election is also a test of Merz's popularity.

Germany's national government has faced voter dissatisfaction amid concerns over the country's weak economy, immigration and the government's ability to deliver on its promises.

AfD's strong performance suggests that frustration with the federal government is benefiting the far right.

Alice Weidel, AfD's national co-leader, called the projected result“sensational” and said voters had given the party a clear mandate to govern.

She said AfD's“hand is outstretched” to those who want to improve Saxony-Anhalt and move Germany forward.

(With AP inputs)

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