US Says 'West Asia War Will End' As Iran Vows 'Painful Response' Is There A China Angle Behind Washington's Confidence?

(MENAFN- Live Mint) The United States says its economic pressure on Iran is working and expects the conflict to end with Tehran unable to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran, however, has warned Washington that further attacks will draw a "faster, heavier and more painful response".

At the centre of Washington's confidence is Iran's oil trade -- and, significantly, China.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran has only about 30 million barrels of crude oil remaining that China has not already purchased. With US sanctions and a naval blockade restricting Tehran's ability to supply more oil, Bessent said that stock would "run out soon".

"The blockade is working like nothing we've ever seen," Bessent said in an interview with Fox News, describing the sanctions and blockade as a powerful combination for economically isolating Iran.

Why is the US confident about the Iran war?

Washington's strategy is reportedly aimed at cutting Iran's oil exports and restricting a key source of government revenue.

The United States imposed a naval blockade in July while also expanding sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports and efforts to prevent sanctions evasion.

Bessent said the US intended to "asphyxiate" Iran's ruling establishment and argued that sanctions combined with the blockade were among the most powerful tools of economic isolation.

He also said the administration expected the conflict to leave Iran unable to develop a nuclear weapon.

"I think we are going to get to the other side of this Iran conflict with a safer world, with an Iran that cannot have a nuclear weapon," Bessent said.

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Bessent said there were only around 30 million barrels of Iranian crude left that China had not already purchased. According to his assessment, that supply would soon run out, meaning China's ability to continue buying Iranian oil would be constrained by the lack of available product.

The US is also looking beyond Iran's current oil routes. Bessent said oil-producing countries around the Persian Gulf were developing alternative pipeline routes that would allow oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

He also rejected the suggestion that Iran controls the waterway and said the United States is in control of the strait.

Also Read | Trump plans 'much bigger' Middle East reset after Iran war: What's on the table? How has Iran responded?

Tehran has acknowledged the economic damage caused by the US campaign but says it will respond through domestic reforms rather than change its course under American pressure, according to a Reuters report.

Iran's Economy Ministry has established an "Economic War Headquarters" to coordinate and accelerate responses to problems created by the conflict.

Deputy Economy Minister Morteza Zamanian said the centre would initially focus on issues affecting businesses, trade and financing, while coordinating responses across government economic bodies.

Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said Iran planned to respond to US economic pressure with reforms.

"They speak of economic pressure and isolation, of breaking off financial ties and they think that by pressuring the economy of a country they can change the decisions of its people," Madanizadeh said.

He added that responsibility for reforming Iran's economy lay with the Iranian government and people, "not with the US Treasury".

Iran warns of 'faster, heavier and more painful response'

While Tehran is seeking to address the economic fallout, Iran's leadership has also issued a fresh military warning.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the US should understand that "the rules of the game" had changed.

"From now on, any attack against Iran's interests and security will receive a faster, heavier and more painful response," he said.

The warning came amid renewed hostilities between US and Iran.

After a pause in military action for much of July, tit-for-tat strikes have resumed between Tehran and Washington. US Central Command said it had hit three Iranian tankers on Saturday after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships.

The IRGC subsequently threatened intensified strikes against US military vessels in the region.

Iran's oil lifeline is also under pressure

Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC and had exported 90% of its crude through the Kharg Island export hub before the war, according to Reuters.

Oil flows have been disrupted since the US blockade of Iranian oil exports began in mid-April.

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said Kharg Island had been hit around 550 times in previous months but continued to operate.

The Strait of Hormuz remains another major pressure point. Iran has imposed a blockade on the waterway, while the US says it remains in control of the strait.

The route was responsible for a fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict.

'The war will end'

The US believes the combination of sanctions, the naval blockade and pressure on Iran's oil exports can force Tehran into a weaker economic position. Bessent also predicted that the economic shock caused by higher energy prices would eventually ease.

"This war will end, and those will turn into real wage gains," he said, referring to the impact of higher energy prices on Americans.

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