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Global Food Prices Surge to 2022 High as Black Sea Grain Halted
(MENAFN) Global food prices surged in August to their highest level since late 2022, as fresh disruptions tied to the Russia-Ukraine war squeezed grain markets and choked off Black Sea exports, according to UN data and the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index climbed to 133.3 points in August, up from 130.8 in July, with all five major food categories posting increases. Despite the rise, the index still sits roughly 17% below the peak it hit in March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
PIE said strikes on port infrastructure and shipping lanes throughout July and August had brought much of the grain trade out of Russia and Ukraine to a standstill — a disruption with outsized impact, since the two countries together supply roughly one-third of the world's wheat exports.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports in Odesa and along the Danube slashed Ukrainian wheat exports to 1.6 million metric tons between Aug. 1 and 28, according to PIE, citing Ukrainian authorities — a drop of around 60% from a year earlier and just 20% of the country's potential export capacity.
On the other side of the conflict, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Novorossiysk port helped drive a 56% year-on-year decline in Russian wheat exports, per estimates from agricultural consultancy SovEcon cited by the institute. Russian wheat shipments totaled just 1.6 million metric tons in the season's opening month — the lowest figure for that period since the 2017/18 season.
The fallout is already rippling through international markets. Wheat futures jumped roughly 30% year-on-year in August, reaching their highest point in more than three years, PIE said. Asian buyers have started pivoting toward Australian and Argentine wheat as Russian and Ukrainian supply grows increasingly unreliable.
Ukraine, for its part, is scrambling for alternative export routes, pushing for greater transit capacity through Poland and other neighboring EU states, and calling on Poland to lift its embargo on Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed imports.
Yet PIE cautioned that land routes simply cannot absorb the volumes once handled by Black Sea ports. Low water levels on the Danube and attacks on infrastructure near Moldova are further narrowing Ukraine's export options.
Russia, meanwhile, is attempting to reroute grain exports toward Baltic ports following the disruption at Novorossiysk — which typically handles about one-third of the country's grain exports — though these alternative routes come with higher costs and longer delivery times.
Agricultural products make up around 60% of Ukraine's total exports, PIE noted, meaning sustained disruption threatens to pile further pressure on export earnings, storage capacity and broader economic growth.
The institute warned that continued attacks on Black Sea infrastructure are driving up the economic toll of the war for both Russia and Ukraine — and that pressure is being transmitted to global food markets with increasing speed.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index climbed to 133.3 points in August, up from 130.8 in July, with all five major food categories posting increases. Despite the rise, the index still sits roughly 17% below the peak it hit in March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
PIE said strikes on port infrastructure and shipping lanes throughout July and August had brought much of the grain trade out of Russia and Ukraine to a standstill — a disruption with outsized impact, since the two countries together supply roughly one-third of the world's wheat exports.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports in Odesa and along the Danube slashed Ukrainian wheat exports to 1.6 million metric tons between Aug. 1 and 28, according to PIE, citing Ukrainian authorities — a drop of around 60% from a year earlier and just 20% of the country's potential export capacity.
On the other side of the conflict, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Novorossiysk port helped drive a 56% year-on-year decline in Russian wheat exports, per estimates from agricultural consultancy SovEcon cited by the institute. Russian wheat shipments totaled just 1.6 million metric tons in the season's opening month — the lowest figure for that period since the 2017/18 season.
The fallout is already rippling through international markets. Wheat futures jumped roughly 30% year-on-year in August, reaching their highest point in more than three years, PIE said. Asian buyers have started pivoting toward Australian and Argentine wheat as Russian and Ukrainian supply grows increasingly unreliable.
Ukraine, for its part, is scrambling for alternative export routes, pushing for greater transit capacity through Poland and other neighboring EU states, and calling on Poland to lift its embargo on Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed imports.
Yet PIE cautioned that land routes simply cannot absorb the volumes once handled by Black Sea ports. Low water levels on the Danube and attacks on infrastructure near Moldova are further narrowing Ukraine's export options.
Russia, meanwhile, is attempting to reroute grain exports toward Baltic ports following the disruption at Novorossiysk — which typically handles about one-third of the country's grain exports — though these alternative routes come with higher costs and longer delivery times.
Agricultural products make up around 60% of Ukraine's total exports, PIE noted, meaning sustained disruption threatens to pile further pressure on export earnings, storage capacity and broader economic growth.
The institute warned that continued attacks on Black Sea infrastructure are driving up the economic toll of the war for both Russia and Ukraine — and that pressure is being transmitted to global food markets with increasing speed.
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