Who Will Control The Arctic? Growing Power Struggle Between Russia, China And The US Explained

(MENAFN- Live Mint) The Arctic is emerging as a new area of competition between the world's major powers. US President Donald Trump' s repeated calls for Greenland to become part of the United States have brought the region into the spotlight. But the struggle for influence in the Arctic is much older, with Russia holding a strong position there for decades.

The Arctic is becoming increasingly important because of its strategic location, military value, shipping routes and natural resources. Climate change is also making parts of the region more accessible, increasing interest from countries far beyond the Arctic itself.

Russia: The dominant Arctic power

Russia has the largest Arctic presence of any country. It controls about half of the land and half of the maritime exclusive economic zone north of the Arctic Circle. Around two-thirds of the people living in the Arctic are also in Russia, CNN reported.

The region itself contributes only about 0.4% of the global economy, CNN citied the Arctic Council. Yet Russia accounts for roughly two-thirds of the Arctic's GDP.

Moscow has also spent decades strengthening its military presence. According to research by the Simons Foundation, Russia has 30 military sites in the wider Arctic, alongside hundreds of other defence installations and outposts.

Russia's Arctic military strength is centred partly around its nuclear-powered submarine fleet. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says Moscow has invested heavily in modernising these submarines in recent years. Russia has also developed its radar, drone and missile capabilities in the region.

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However, Russia does not currently have military capabilities that match those of NATO. The concern for Western countries is the scale of Moscow's Arctic presence and how quickly it has expanded in recent years.

NATO: A growing counterweight

The Arctic was not always a major source of tension between Russia and the West. After the Cold War, the region became an area where both sides were able to cooperate.

The Arctic Council was established in 1996 to encourage cooperation among the eight Arctic states - Russia, the US, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Its work focused on issues including the environment, biodiversity and the rights of indigenous communities.

Security cooperation was also attempted. Russia took part in two high-level meetings of the Arctic Chiefs of Defense Forum before its participation ended following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

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Relations deteriorated further after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Most forms of Arctic cooperation between Russia and Western countries have since been suspended.

The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO in 2023 and 2024 has further changed the balance. The Arctic is now broadly divided between Russia and NATO, creating a new strategic fault line between Moscow and the Western alliance.

US: Why does Trump want Greenland?

Greenland has become one of the most controversial parts of the Arctic power struggle because of Trump's repeated claims that the US "needs" the island for national security.

Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, a NATO member and a close US ally. Trump has argued that Denmark does not have enough military strength to protect Greenland from Russia and China.

The island is strategically important because of its location between North America and Europe. Its position also makes it valuable for monitoring military activity and securing access to the Arctic and North Atlantic.

But security is not the only reason for the US interest.

China: The 'near-Arctic state'

China does not have territory inside the Arctic, but Beijing has made its interest in the region clear.

In 2018, China described itself as a "near-Arctic state" and promoted the idea of a "polar silk road" linked to Arctic shipping.

China's interest is partly connected to trade and energy. As melting ice opens new maritime routes, Beijing could gain shorter connections between Asia and Europe.

China has also strengthened its relationship with Russia in the Arctic. In 2024, the two countries conducted a joint Arctic patrol as part of wider cooperation.

This has added another layer to Western concerns, particularly as Russia and China have grown closer in other strategic areas.

Why is the Arctic becoming more important?

The biggest change in the Arctic is being driven by climate change.

The region is warming at around four times the global average. Sea ice is disappearing rapidly, changing an area that was once extremely difficult to access.

For scientists and environmental groups, this is a serious warning. Melting ice threatens ecosystems, wildlife and communities that depend on the Arctic environment.

But governments and businesses also see new possibilities.

Less sea ice could make it easier to use Arctic shipping routes and reach deposits of valuable minerals.

Shipping: A shortcut between Asia and Europe

The Northern Sea Route, which runs along Russia's northern coastline, and the Northwest Passage, which follows the northern coast of North America, have become increasingly accessible during summer.

The Northern Sea Route could cut the journey between Asia and Europe to roughly two weeks - about half the time needed through the Suez Canal.

Russia has increased its use of the route since 2022, particularly to move oil and gas to China after Western sanctions reduced its access to European markets.

The Northwest Passage has also seen more traffic. Through sailings increased from only a few each year in the early 2000s to as many as 41 in 2023.

A third route across the North Pole could eventually become possible if enough ice disappears. However, such a development would also have serious environmental consequences and could accelerate global warming.

Greenland: A treasure trove of minerals?

Greenland is attracting attention for another reason: its natural resources.

The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland says the island could contain deposits of coal, copper, gold, rare-earth elements and zinc.

Rare-earth minerals are particularly important because they are used in many modern technologies and are considered strategically important by major economies.

However, extracting these resources would be far from easy. Many deposits are in isolated areas above the Arctic Circle, where Greenland's thick ice sheet, harsh weather and long periods of darkness make mining extremely difficult and expensive.

Why does the Arctic matter to the world?

The Arctic is no longer simply a remote, frozen region. It is becoming a strategic crossroads where military power, trade, energy, minerals and climate change intersect.

Russia already has a major advantage because of its geography, infrastructure and military presence. NATO has strengthened its position by bringing Finland and Sweden into the alliance, while the US is paying greater attention to Greenland.

China, meanwhile, wants a role in a region where it has no territory but sees growing economic and strategic opportunities.

That is why the Arctic is becoming a new arena of competition between superpowers. The irony is that the same climate change making the region more accessible is also creating the environmental risks that could make this race increasingly dangerous.

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