Dubai Police Identifies 28 Factors That Could Shape Region's Security

Dubai Police has identified 28 future drivers that could fundamentally reshape the region's security framework as the emirate prepares for an increasingly complex global environment marked by technological disruption and geopolitical tensions.

The study, developed by the Future Foresight Centre at Dubai Police with input from leading scenario-planning experts, examines how current geopolitical realities, particularly developments affecting the Middle East, could evolve over the coming years.

Rather than forecasting a single outcome, the research explores multiple possibilities and the forces most likely to drive significant change, offering institutions a strategic roadmap for preparedness.

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The analysis spans six critical areas: economic stability, technological advancement, social dynamics, environmental factors, political transformation, and security threats. Among the most pressing concerns identified are escalating cyber threats and vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure that have become increasingly exploitable in an age of interconnected systems.

"Global cities are vital economic and cultural hubs, making their stability essential," said Dr Hamdan Ahmad Al Ghasiyah, Director of the Future Foresight Centre. "But assessing this stability now requires us to look beyond traditional indicators. We must consider the interconnected nature of social, cultural, technological, political and environmental factors."

The study comes at a time when rapid political shifts and economic uncertainty have made forward-thinking analysis a strategic imperative. Scenario planning helps institutions navigate uncertainty, develop flexible response strategies, and strengthen organizational agility, ultimately preparing for desired futures aligned with national objectives.

"Foresight is not about prediction," noted Colonel Omar Khalifa Balobaida Al Suwaidi, Deputy Director of the Center. "It's about broadening strategic thinking and preparing for a range of possibilities in an increasingly complex world."

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