Kazakhstan Keeps 2026 Inflation Forecast Unchanged, Raises Outlook For 2027

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 4. Kazakhstan's National Bank has kept its inflation forecast for 2026 unchanged at 9–11%, while raising its forecast for 2027 to 6.5–8.5% from the previously projected 5.5–7.5%, the NBK announced.

The National Bank said that moderate tight monetary conditions and a strong tenge exchange rate will contribute to slower price growth. Additional restrictive pressure will come from the final stage of increasing minimum reserve requirements in September 2026.

"The forecast for 2027 has been revised upward to 6.5–8.5% (from 5.5–7.5%), due to higher external inflation, revised assumptions for regulated prices, and an increase in the fiscal impulse. At the same time, the accumulated tightness of monetary policy will continue to limit inflationary pressure and contribute to further slowing price growth," the National Bank said.

Inflation is expected to stabilize close to the 5% target in 2028 as the external inflationary environment normalizes, fiscal consolidation takes place, domestic demand normalizes, and inflation expectations decline amid moderately tight monetary conditions.

Moreover, the National Bank declared that the balance of inflation risks remains tilted to the upside.

"The main risks are associated with expanding domestic demand amid a stronger fiscal impulse, unanchored inflation expectations, and further developments in fuel prices and utility tariffs. External risks are driven by rising global food and energy prices amid a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions," the National Bank said.

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