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Stubb: Russia Won't Risk Attacking NATO, Despite 2029 Warnings
(MENAFN) Finnish President Alexander Stubb pushed back against warnings that Russia could be poised to strike NATO territory by 2029, saying he sees no credible basis for such predictions.
In an interview with a German newspaper on Saturday, Stubb dismissed the forecasts as speculative. “If someone had such a crystal ball — wonderful. But I simply see neither evidence nor facts for that,” he said. “I do not believe that Russia would ever want to attack the most powerful military alliance in the world, NATO.”
Still, Stubb was careful to stress that his confidence shouldn't translate into complacency. “I'm not saying ‘relax.’ One should always prepare for the worst in order to prevent it.”
He said his conclusion rests on two foundations. “First, I have intelligence insights. And second, we have deterrence — and this deterrence is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world.” That deterrent strength, he explained, is built “on conventional forces, on missiles and on nuclear weapons. It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance.”
Stubb also downplayed fears of a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine, pointing to a conversation with China's foreign minister earlier this summer. “This summer the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I raised the topic. And he said: ‘We will never allow that to happen.’ And I believe that is a rather effective deterrence.”
According to Stubb, Russia's information warfare is designed to spread fear across Europe by pushing debate over whether Moscow might escalate, deploy nuclear weapons, or strike NATO directly. But he argued the Kremlin's real options are narrow — with a fresh military mobilization standing as the only significant escalation still on the table, a move that would likely carry steep political costs at home.
In an interview with a German newspaper on Saturday, Stubb dismissed the forecasts as speculative. “If someone had such a crystal ball — wonderful. But I simply see neither evidence nor facts for that,” he said. “I do not believe that Russia would ever want to attack the most powerful military alliance in the world, NATO.”
Still, Stubb was careful to stress that his confidence shouldn't translate into complacency. “I'm not saying ‘relax.’ One should always prepare for the worst in order to prevent it.”
He said his conclusion rests on two foundations. “First, I have intelligence insights. And second, we have deterrence — and this deterrence is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world.” That deterrent strength, he explained, is built “on conventional forces, on missiles and on nuclear weapons. It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance.”
Stubb also downplayed fears of a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine, pointing to a conversation with China's foreign minister earlier this summer. “This summer the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I raised the topic. And he said: ‘We will never allow that to happen.’ And I believe that is a rather effective deterrence.”
According to Stubb, Russia's information warfare is designed to spread fear across Europe by pushing debate over whether Moscow might escalate, deploy nuclear weapons, or strike NATO directly. But he argued the Kremlin's real options are narrow — with a fresh military mobilization standing as the only significant escalation still on the table, a move that would likely carry steep political costs at home.
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