Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l’Industrie – Foreign Currency Ratings Downgraded

(MENAFN- Capital Intelligence Ltd) 28 August 2026

Capital Intelligence Ratings (CI Ratings or CI) today announced that it has downgraded the Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating (LT FCR) and Short-Term Foreign Currency Rating (ST FCR) of Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l’Industrie (BMCI or the Bank) to ‘BB+’ and ‘B’, from ‘BBB-’ and ‘A3’, respectively. At the same time, CI Ratings has affirmed BMCI’s Bank Standalone Rating (BSR) of ‘bb’ and Core Financial Strength (CFS) rating of ‘bb’. The Extraordinary Support Level (ESL) is lowered to Moderate, from High. The Outlook for the LT FCR and BSR is Stable.

The downgrade of the LT and ST FCRs reflects the likely imminent sale of the stake of France’s BNP Paribas (BNPP), the current majority shareholder, to the Moroccan Holmarcom Group (HG). In Q2 26, BNPP agreed to sell its entire 67% shareholding in BMCI to Holmarcom Finance Company (HFC), which holds the financial, insurance and banking investments of HG. HG is a longstanding partner and shareholder of BMCI through an 8.4% stake held in BMCI by AtlantaSanad Assurance, part of HFC. The completion of the deal is expected in Q4 26, subject to regulatory approval. HG is a Moroccan-based conglomerate with core businesses in the finance (insurance and banking), agro-industry, logistics and real estate sectors. In 2022, HG successfully acquired Credit du Maroc, Morocco’s seventh-largest bank, from France’s Credit Agricole. Going forward, the plan will be to merge BMCI with Credit du Maroc to create a major new national banking entity, ranking either fourth- or fifth-largest in Morocco.

With the likely ownership change, our ESL assessment has therefore been revised to Moderate, from previously High – the latter was due to BNPP’s majority ownership. Accordingly, BMCI’s LT FCR now incorporates one notch (previously two notches) of uplift above its BSR, based on the moderate likelihood of extraordinary support, if needed, from the Moroccan authorities. CI notes that even in the unlikely event that the sale did not proceed, ESL would remain Moderate given that BMCI would appear to not be a part of BNPP’s long-term plans. As the currently eighth-largest bank in Morocco, we do not consider BMCI to be of systemic importance to the sector. However, the Bank is relatively sizeable and controls around 5% of customer deposits in the sector, and thus the likelihood of support from the authorities is moderate. The potential merged entity of BMCI and Credit du Maroc could, however, be classified as systemically important. If this was to occur, our ESL would likely be adjusted to High.

BMCI’s BSR is derived from a CFS rating of ‘bb’ and an Operating Environment Risk Anchor (OPERA) of ‘bb+’. The CFS reflects the Bank’s steady and defendable franchise, solid level of liquid assets, adequate capital position (despite being partially impaired), and adequate credit-loss absorption capacity. The latter is supported by sound income generation.

The main financial challenges are the Bank’s high level of both NPLs and Stage 2 loans, an elevated loans to customer deposits ratio, and weak returns at the net profit level suppressed by a high-expense base and high cost of risk. Although BMCI has a good base of medium- and long-term borrowings, which provides some funding diversification, the contribution from core customer deposits is fairly low, and customer deposit growth has been modest. Hence, the Bank’s reliance on wholesale funding is quite high, although having recorded a decline in 2025.

BMCI has a satisfactory market position in the Moroccan banking sector. However, asset and loan growth has been lacklustre for some time. The Bank’s activities are very much focused on the domestic market, traditionally to the corporate sector, but BMCI has also expanded in the retail sector, including home loans. It has diversified financial activity through a number of subsidiaries, including leasing and insurance, but these are quite small.

Loan asset quality is weak. NPLs represent a high but decreased 12% of gross loans at end-2025. Stage 2-classified loans are also elevated at 14.2% of gross loans. BMCI’s NPL ratio and level of Stage 2 loans is higher than those of peer banks in Morocco. BMCI’s high NPL ratio reflects in part legacy exposures from old, unresolved impaired corporate exposures and a conservative loan classification. French-owned banks in Morocco have traditionally had a more systematic and mechanical process of downgrading the quality of loans to NPL status. However, in any case, BMCI has a significant level of both Stage 2 and 3 loans.

BMCI has a reasonably stable income generation, supported by a fairly cost-effective funding base and an associated solid net interest margin. Revenue (operating income) growth has been sound over the past three years, driven by higher net interest income (NII), supported by gains from securities and fee and commission income. Operating profit has showed satisfactory improvement; however, the expense base remains elevated, as does the cost of risk. The Bank’s return at the net profit level is low, and the weakest in the Moroccan peer group, impacted by weak cost efficiency and a high impairment charge, although further improvement was seen in 2025.

In Q1 26, net profit increased by 60% to MAD168mn compared to Q1 25, largely due to a lower cost of risk. Operating income was marginally weaker due to reduced gains on securities. NII was higher, and fee income also improved. The provision charge declined by 67% in Q1 26 against Q1 25.

Funding and liquidity are considered adequate overall. The level of liquid assets is satisfactory, although net loans as a proportion of customer deposits is stretched, but improved in both 2025 and Q1 26, aided by the decline in loans in both periods. BMCI has an adequate ratio of net loans to stable funds, supported by a reasonable base of medium- and long-term funding and capital position, and the liquidity coverage ratio is adequately above the regulatory minimum.

BMCI’s capital ratios are adequate, and the capital position provides a reasonable but not significant buffer against unforeseen events. The likely new shareholders, HG, would be expected to maintain the Bank’s capital position at a satisfactory level.

Rating Outlook

The Stable Outlook indicates that the ratings are likely to remain unchanged over the next 12 months. CI expects BMCI to maintain its financials at a satisfactory level this year relative to its current ratings.

Rating Dynamics: Upside Scenario

A favourable rating action is unlikely in the next 12 months. An upward revision would require a significant improvement in the Bank’s loan asset quality, including a much-reduced level of NPLs, improved coverage, and strengthened liquidity metrics. The Bank’s profitability would also need to improve further. An upgrade in CI’s internal assessment of sovereign risk for Morocco and/or the OPERA, which is considered remote at present, could exert upward pressure on the ratings.

Rating Dynamics: Downside Scenario

A weakening of BMCI’s loan asset quality or liquidity could lead to a lowering of the ratings. This would also be the case if BMCI’s capital ratios weakened. A downgrade in CI’s internal assessment of sovereign risk for Morocco and/or the OPERA would exert downward pressure on the FC ratings.

Contact

Primary Analyst: Darren Stubing, Senior Credit Analyst; E-mail: ...
Secondary Analyst: Farah Parveen Khan, Senior Credit Analyst
Committee Chairperson: Morris Helal, Senior Credit Analyst
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