Global Economy Briefing - August 29, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Global Economy Briefing

The Big Three

Warsh puts a September hike on the table. In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh stressed that 12-month PCE inflation“stands at 3.7 percent” - with 54% of the basket still rising faster than 3% - and futures ended the day implying about a 57% chance of a September rate hike, up from roughly 35% before the speech. Stocks slip, yields and the dollar firm. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq lost 0.52%, while the two-year Treasury yield touched its highest since July around 4.32% and the dollar index rose 0.50% to 99.65; gold slid about 3% to near $4,455 an ounce. Brazil bucks the mood. The Ibovespa rose 0.30% to 175,664.62 - an eighth straight gain and a 3.06% weekly rise - while the real slipped to 5.196 per dollar; the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut, with mid-August inflation at 4.24% over 12 months.

S&P 500 7,712 -0.25% Slips after Warsh speech Dow Jones 53,560 -0.02% Marginally lower Nasdaq 26,402 -0.52% Tech leads decline Gold $4,459/oz -2.96% Hawkish Fed hits non-yielding assets US 10Y yield 4.717% +0.92% Climbs on hike repricing Dollar index 99.65 +0.50% Dollar firms on hike bets VIX 14.43 -0.55% Fear gauge remains subdued

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to put a September rate hike on the table - US stocks dipped, Treasury yields and the dollar firmed, gold slid about 3%, and Brazil's Ibovespa still stretched its winning streak to eight sessions.

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United States

Indicator	Actual	Prior	Verdict
PCE inflation (July, YoY)	3.7%	3.7%	Unchanged - still well above the 2% target
Unemployment rate (July)	4.1%	4.0%	Warsh: consistent with full employment
US 2-year Treasury yield (session)	≈4.32%	≈4.22%	Highest since July after the speech

Europe & United Kingdom

Indicator	Actual	Prior	Verdict
Brent crude (October futures)	$89.31	$89.70	Down more than 5% on the week
FTSE 100 (Friday close)	10,824.26	-	+0.29%; DAX +0.77%, CAC +0.98%

Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets

Indicator	Actual	Prior	Verdict
Brazil Selic rate	14.00%	14.25%	Cut on August 5; next Copom September 15–16
Brazil real (per USD)	5.196	≈5.16	Third straight daily gain for the dollar
Ibovespa	175,665	≈175,100	Eighth straight gain; about +24% year-on-year

Instrument	Level	Session
S&P 500 (US)	7,712	-0.25%
Ibovespa (Brazil)	175,665	+0.30%
USD/BRL	5.196	+0.66%

Source: RT close, 2026-08-28. Figures rendered directly from the feed.

Today's Economic Calendar - Saturday, August 29, 2026

Time	Country	Event	Consensus	Prior
All day	US	Jackson Hole Symposium - final day	-	-

A quiet Saturday: the Jackson Hole symposium wraps up in Wyoming. Japan's July industrial production and retail sales land on Monday morning in Tokyo (08:50 JST), and Peru marks Santa Rosa de Lima on Sunday, August 30.

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Global Markets - Live Board World
Aug 29, 2026 · 01:53 S&P 500 · benchmark 7,751 +0.29% Market breadth · 15 names 60% advancing 9 ▲ advancing6 declining ▼ Currencies, rates & key inputs EUR / USD 1.1523 -0.20% US 10-yr 4.6760 -0.17% VIX 14.60 -4.45% Gold 4,461 +1.78% Brent crude 88.88 -0.03% Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
SPX	7,751	+0.29%	-	-	-	-	-
NDX	29,799	+0.93%	-	-	-	-	-
DJI	53,810	+0.03%	-	-	-	-	-
RUT	3,041	+0.46%	-	-	-	-	-
US10Y	4.6760	-0.17%	-	-	-	-	-
VIX	14.60	-4.45%	-	-	-	-	-
DAX	26,331	-0.23%	-	-	-	-	-
FTSE	10,833	-0.10%	-	-	-	-	-
CAC	8,675	-0.46%	-	-	-	-	-
STOXX	659.48	-0.16%	-	-	-	-	-
NIKKEI	67,524	+0.83%	-	-	-	-	-
HSI	25,440	-0.83%	-	-	-	-	-
KOSPI	6,579	+3.68%	-	-	-	-	-
CSI300	4,691	+0.58%	-	-	-	-	-
NIFTY	24,436	-0.15%	-	-	-	-	-
TSX	36,619	+0.39%	-	-	-	-	-
GOLD	4,461	+1.78%	+33.20%	4,383	4,503	4,421	139,824
SILVER	65.59	+1.26%	+73.05%	64.77	66.98	64.81	46,406

Largest moves today VIX 14.60 -4.45% KOSPI 6,579 +3.68% GOLD 4,461 +1.78% SILVER 65.59 +1.26% NDX 29,799 +0.93% NIKKEI 67,524 +0.83% HSI 25,440 -0.83% CSI300 4,691 +0.58% The session read The S&P 500 rose 0.29%, with breadth positive - 9 of 15 names higher. KOSPI led, while HSI lagged. From The Rio Times Related coverage · 28 Aug 2026 Ecuador Orders 119 Investment Funds and Administrators to Raise Their Capital 01 Risk appetite meets a higher-for-longer breeze

US shares went into the weekend uneasy rather than panicked: the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76, the Nasdaq lost 0.52% and the Dow finished marginally lower at 53,559.99, capping a week that still left the S&P up about 0.5%. Europe ended firmer - the FTSE 100 added 0.29% and Germany's DAX 0.77% - after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told Jackson Hole:“Our job is to return inflation to 2%, but I don't know how long that will take.”

Gold slid about 3% to roughly $4,455 an ounce, a sharp pullback from Tuesday's three-month high of $4,696, which followed the US Treasury's announcement of a buyback program for long-dated bonds - even so, August's gain of about 14% is the metal's strongest month this century. Brent crude slipped 0.43% to $89.31 a barrel, ending the week down more than 5% and snapping a two-week winning streak, six months to the day since the US–Iran war began and with fresh US sanctions on Iran announced Friday.

Brazil bucked the global mood: the Ibovespa rose 0.30% to 175,664.62 - an eighth straight gain and a 3.06% weekly rise, its best week since April - leaving the index up about 24% from a year ago. The real softened, with the dollar up 0.66% at R$5.196, while the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut and mid-August inflation came in at 4.24% over 12 months.

02 Warsh's hard line keeps September in play

In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh recommitted the central bank to what he called a“firm, fixed target” of 2% PCE inflation - a goal the US has now missed, in his words, through“65 months of sustained, elevated inflation.” Twelve-month PCE inflation“stands at 3.7 percent,” he said, and 54% of the basket is still rising faster than 3%.

Warsh argued that 4.1% unemployment leaves the labor market“consistent with full employment,” that“short-term interest rates are the predominant tool” of policy, and that forward guidance“has overstayed its welcome.” His closer - the Fed must see underlying inflation moving to target“clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do” - was read as a clear hint at the mid-September meeting.

Markets reacted fast: the two-year Treasury yield jumped about nine hundredths of a point to roughly 4.32% during the session, its highest since July, while the ten-year closed up four hundredths at 4.72%. Futures now imply about a 57% chance of a rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC - up from roughly 35% before the speech - and a 38.5% chance that the funds rate, now 3.50%–3.75%, reaches 4.00%–4.25% by year-end.

03 Debt, inflation and the emerging-market tightrope

For Latin America, the mix is double-edged: cheaper oil eases imported inflation, but higher US yields and a firmer dollar narrow the cushion that carry trades in Brazilian rates have enjoyed. Every extra hundredth of a point on US yields makes the real and its peers more sensitive to any further dollar strength.

Asia adds its own wrinkle: the yen hovered near 159 per dollar - a 40-year low - even after a record ¥15.4 trillion, roughly $96 billion, of intervention in under a month, this time with US support. Prediction markets put odds around 85% on a Bank of Japan hike at its September 17–18 meeting, and Monday morning in Tokyo brings July industrial production and retail sales.

The week ahead then turns back to the US: ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings and the Fed's Beige Book lead into the September 4 jobs report, the last big data release before the Fed and Brazil's Copom both meet on September 15–16. For carry trades built on a 14% Selic, that calendar is now the risk map.

What to watch today and this week

Saturday: Jackson Hole wraps up - final-day panels rarely move markets, but any Fed pushback on September pricing will. Monday: Japan's July industrial production and retail sales (08:50 JST) - a read on Asian demand after a month of record yen intervention. Friday, September 4: US jobs report - the last major data release before the Fed's mid-September decision. Mid-September: the Fed and Brazil's Copom decide on September 15–16; the Bank of Japan follows on September 17–18.

Frequently Asked Questions What did Warsh say at Jackson Hole?

He recommitted the Fed to its 2% inflation target, citing July PCE inflation of 3.7% and noting that 54% of the basket is still rising faster than 3% - enough to put a September rate hike back on the table.

Why did gold fall?

Gold fell about 3% to near $4,455 an ounce as higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar after Warsh's speech reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

How did Brazil react?

The Ibovespa rose 0.3% to 175,665 points - an eighth straight gain - while the real slipped to 5.196 per dollar; the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut.

What does a stronger dollar mean for Latin America?

It raises external financing costs and can pressure local currencies, offsetting the benefit of cheaper commodity imports.

Is a September Fed hike likely?

Futures markets imply roughly a 57% chance of a hike at the mid-September meeting, up from about 35% before the speech.

Sources

Federal Reserve - Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech text (federalreserve), August 28, 2026. Associated Press / Yahoo Finance - US closing market wrap, August 28, 2026. InfoMoney - Ibovespa, dollar-real, Brent and dollar index closing reports, August 28, 2026. Reuters - gold prices and Japan yen intervention reporting, August 2026. IBGE - IPCA-15 August 2026 release; Banco Central do Brasil - PTAX and Selic data. CME FedWatch - Fed funds futures pricing, August 28, 2026.

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