Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Iran Attacks Aimed To Undermine UAE Success And Exert Pressure, But 'Failed': Researcher


(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Iran's calculation in targeting the UAE failed, a researcher specialising in Iranian and Middle East affairs has said, pointing to the country's military strength and disciplined defence posture.

Fatmah Alzeyoudi, a researcher at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), said Tehran may have targeted the UAE partly to undermine its position as one of the region's leading success stories.

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“It appears that the Iranian regime viewed the UAE as the region's most advanced models of prosperity, development, and economic success,” Alzeyoudi told Khaleej Times.“From this perspective, targeting the UAE was intended not only to exert pressure, but also to undermine its image as a leading regional model and divert attention from the weaknesses and deterioration of Iran's own economic and developmental model.”

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She said this was evident from the early stages of the war, when Iranian threats extended beyond military targets to civilian and economic infrastructure with no direct military function.

Alzeyoudi pointed to threats against Emirati cities, as well as reports by the Iranian government-affiliated Mehr News Agency referring to potential strikes against the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, Jebel Ali and the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

“The UAE demonstrated that its strength extends beyond its advanced economy to its growing military capabilities and the strategic, disciplined vision underpinning its defence posture.”

Her assessment comes as the region marks six months since Iran first attacked the UAE and other Gulf countries, a period that has raised questions about deterrence, collective Gulf security and how states prepare for the spillover of conflicts in which they are not directly involved.

UAE strategy did not fundamentally change

Alzeyoudi said the crisis had not caused the UAE to abandon its longstanding support for de-escalation.

What the conflict had reinforced, however, was the importance of developing alternative options and diversifying strategic partnerships to protect the UAE's long-term interests.

She cited Fujairah Port and efforts to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz as an example of that strategic thinking.

“It reflects not only an effort to develop alternatives for the UAE itself, but also a broader vision to provide viable options for neighbouring states, rooted in the UAE's sense of regional responsibility while also serving the wider economic interests of the international community,” she said.

The conflict had also demonstrated how countries must increasingly prepare for threats arising from wars in which they are not direct participants, Alzeyoudi said.

“There is no doubt that the nature of warfare has changed, not only in terms of the scope of asymmetric and hybrid warfare, but also in the extent to which targets are now being struck that are not directly party to the conflict,” she said.

Greater Gulf defence coordination

Alzeyoudi said the experience had strengthened the case for deeper defence coordination among GCC states.

Strengthening that coordination, she added, would help create a stronger deterrence framework, ensuring that Iran or any other state or non-state actor would“think twice” before considering an attack on a GCC country.

She said future Gulf collective defence should build on existing frameworks and develop into a“more integrated and comprehensive security architecture”.

“Such an approach could strengthen the GCC's ability to address threats from all angles and enhance collective security, resilience, and deterrence across the Gulf,” she said.

Alzeyoudi also argued that the war had demonstrated that the UAE's resilience planning had been developed well before the conflict.

Every war would inevitably create new challenges and expose vulnerabilities, she added, making continuous planning essential to preparing for future threats.

Dialogue remains necessary

Despite the events of the past six months, Alzeyoudi said the UAE and other Gulf states would not abandon engagement with Iran.

“Diplomatic dialogue will continue as a regional necessity,” she said.

But dialogue on its own was no longer enough; it“must be accompanied by credible security arrangements and tangible guarantees from Iran”.

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