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Corn Prices Hit 3-Year High as El Niño, War Squeeze Supply
(MENAFN) Corn prices climbed to $5.2425 per bushel in global markets, marking their highest level in three years as the El Niño weather pattern, dry conditions, and geopolitical risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war combined to tighten supply.
Grain markets have been thrust into focus by El Niño's disruptive effects, with corn bearing the brunt of the price surge. The commodity had previously touched a comparable peak of $5.2450 on July 31, 2023.
Corn has now gained more than 11% since the end of July and surged over 17% compared with levels at the end of December 2025, before easing to stabilize around $5.18 per bushel.
Mounting worries over US crop yields are fueling expectations of tighter supplies and pushing prices higher, while a rise in US corn exports is adding further upward pressure.
Hot, dry conditions across parts of America's corn belt, unfavorable weather in Europe, and continued disruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments are all deepening concerns about the global corn supply. The harvest across the American Midwest fell short of expectations, while Russian and Ukrainian strikes on each other's shipping lanes have interrupted grain exports on both sides.
With weather threatening production on one front and geopolitical instability jeopardizing deliveries on another, the room to absorb further supply shocks is shrinking — particularly given already elevated energy and fertilizer costs. Fading expectations of further Fed rate hikes, along with softening demand for the US dollar, are also propping up commodity prices more broadly.
Futures and commodities expert Zafer Ergezen told media that El Niño's effects first became visible in June, hitting South America, Southeast Asia and Australia hardest, with somewhat milder impacts felt in the US and Europe.
“We're seeing a serious impact of the weather phenomenon in West Africa,” he said. “There were concerns over a decline in corn yields, especially in Brazil, the US, and Southeast Asia.”
Ergezen noted that oil prices have played a role too, since demand for corn used in biodiesel production rises alongside oil prices — and roughly 60% of the world's corn output goes toward industrial use. He said the combined force of El Niño and elevated oil prices has been central to corn's price climb.
“El Nino will continue until the beginning of next year, and if oil remains at these levels, we may see even more upward movements in corn,” he said.
“As long as oil prices don't decline and there isn't a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran, I don't expect a deep pullback in corn prices,” he added.
Grain markets have been thrust into focus by El Niño's disruptive effects, with corn bearing the brunt of the price surge. The commodity had previously touched a comparable peak of $5.2450 on July 31, 2023.
Corn has now gained more than 11% since the end of July and surged over 17% compared with levels at the end of December 2025, before easing to stabilize around $5.18 per bushel.
Mounting worries over US crop yields are fueling expectations of tighter supplies and pushing prices higher, while a rise in US corn exports is adding further upward pressure.
Hot, dry conditions across parts of America's corn belt, unfavorable weather in Europe, and continued disruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments are all deepening concerns about the global corn supply. The harvest across the American Midwest fell short of expectations, while Russian and Ukrainian strikes on each other's shipping lanes have interrupted grain exports on both sides.
With weather threatening production on one front and geopolitical instability jeopardizing deliveries on another, the room to absorb further supply shocks is shrinking — particularly given already elevated energy and fertilizer costs. Fading expectations of further Fed rate hikes, along with softening demand for the US dollar, are also propping up commodity prices more broadly.
Futures and commodities expert Zafer Ergezen told media that El Niño's effects first became visible in June, hitting South America, Southeast Asia and Australia hardest, with somewhat milder impacts felt in the US and Europe.
“We're seeing a serious impact of the weather phenomenon in West Africa,” he said. “There were concerns over a decline in corn yields, especially in Brazil, the US, and Southeast Asia.”
Ergezen noted that oil prices have played a role too, since demand for corn used in biodiesel production rises alongside oil prices — and roughly 60% of the world's corn output goes toward industrial use. He said the combined force of El Niño and elevated oil prices has been central to corn's price climb.
“El Nino will continue until the beginning of next year, and if oil remains at these levels, we may see even more upward movements in corn,” he said.
“As long as oil prices don't decline and there isn't a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran, I don't expect a deep pullback in corn prices,” he added.
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