India-France Eye A Mutually Convenient Next-Gen Fighter Deal

Looking at India's fighter strength and obsolescence problems, Douglas Barrie and Tom Waldwyn note in a February 2026 report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) that the Indian Air Force faces severe operational deficits, as its frontline strength has dwindled to 29 squadrons against an authorized 42-squadron target.

Barrie and Waldwyn say that protracted procurement cycles and chronic manufacturing delays at state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), most notably on the decades-delayed Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), have compounded force depletion.

In contrast, they point out that regional adversaries are advancing rapidly: China has fielded over 300 stealth J-20 fighters alongside next-generation platforms, while Pakistan demonstrated superior long-range missile reach during 2025 air skirmishes, leaving India's aging inventory technologically outmatched and urgently reliant on delayed indigenous replacements and foreign acquisitions.

The problem extends beyond squadron numbers. Former Indian Air Force Vice Chief Marshal Nagesh Kapoor has criticized the slow progress of the Tejas LCA program, saying that HAL's chronic delays are hampering air force readiness, with the first Tejas Mk1A batch postponed to March 2027 due to engine shortages, complex software validation, and stringent requirements.

Kapoor warned that the upcoming Tejas Mk2 will lack operational relevance when it is inducted in the mid-2030s, as China deploys 500 fifth-generation J-20 fighters.

The AMCA offers no near-term solution either. Funding delays, changing requirements and slow technology maturation pushed prototype requests to May 2026, with operational induction projected around 2035-potentially leaving India without a domestically produced stealth fighter for another decade.

Russia has long been a preferred Indian defense partner, but India has declined its offer of the Su-57, choosing instead to modernize its Su-30MKI fleet. Russia's limited Su-57 production and the effects of Western sanctions on its aerospace industry make a major new investment in a Russian-origin fighter increasingly risky.

With indigenous programs delayed and Russia becoming a riskier option, France offers India a plausible path to next-generation airpower-while India could solve an equally pressing problem for France.

France has equally compelling reasons to keep FCAS alive. French Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin noted that FCAS already represents US$2.9 billion in investment over eight years, allowing work on the project to continue into the 2040s. Vautrin pointed out that France is one of the few countries capable of producing a fighter jet entirely independently.

But technological sovereignty does not mean financial self-sufficiency: Le Monde estimates that developing FCAS alone would cost France more than $11.6 billion over the next decade.

France also urgently needs to recapitalize its aging fighter fleet. Aerotime reports that procurement delays, aging airframes and expanding operational commitments are placing growing strain on French combat aviation.