Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Yen Rescue Unravelling, US Intervention Is Already Failing


(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) ) a trusted platform for investing ideas issues market commentary from deVere Group.

The historic US yen intervention, the first in nearly three decades, is already coming apart, and the shift has happened faster than most investment positioning reflects, warns the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Nigel Green ofdeVere Group's warning comes as the yen has weakened past 159 per dollar, retracing roughly half of the gains from July's joint intervention, when the US bought yen for the first time since 1998 to support the currency alongside Japan.

The pair has moved from levels near 152 immediately after that intervention back toward the psychological 160 threshold, undoing much of what the coordinated action was designed to achieve.

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This matters well beyond currency traders.

A weakening yen defence raises borrowing costs and inflation risk for the world's fourth-largest economy, threatens to reignite the yen-funded carry trades that have quietly propped up demand for riskier assets globally, and tests whether Washington and Tokyo can coordinate policy credibly at all, a question every central bank watching from the sidelines is now asking about its own alliances.

The timing of the Bank of Japan's response is where the deVere CEO says the real damage was done.

This hesitation reflects a genuine split at the top of US and Japanese policy, not simply bad timing.

He points to the numbers behind that hesitation as the real story for investors.

History is doing more to shape Tokyo's caution than markets currently appreciate, Nigel Green argues.

He is blunt about what happens if Tokyo continues to move cautiously while Washington pushes for speed.

Nigel Green concludes with a direct warning to investors watching from outside Japan.

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