CEE & CCA Week Ahead: Polish GDP And Inflation, And Romania Rate Decision

(MENAFN- ING) Poland: Headline inflation to be confirmed at 3%

The final release of July CPI on Thursday should confirm headline inflation at 3.0% year-on-year, mainly on the back of higher gasoline and diesel prices. At the same time, our initial forecast points to an uptick in core inflation, and the detailed CPI basket should shed some light on the sources of this increase.

Thursday sees the release of 2Q26 flash GDP. We estimate that GDP growth accelerated to 3.8%YoY from 3.5%YoY in 1Q26 despite a further slowdown in private consumption as investment growth gained momentum. The detailed GDP with its composition will be published at the end of August.

We will also get June Balance of Payments data on Thursday. We forecast the July current account deficit of the balance of payments at €1339mn and estimate that the 12-month rolling deficit deteriorated to 0.9% of GDP from 0.8% of GDP after May. The deficit in trade in goods is projected at €609mn as exports rose by 6.2%YoY, while imports advanced 7.9%YoY.

Romania: NBR rate decision

With the policy rate unchanged since August 2024, we do not expect the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to alter its monetary stance at the 10 August meeting. In our view, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious approach given the still-elevated inflation backdrop, external uncertainties, and Romania's sizeable macroeconomic imbalances. We therefore continue to expect the first rate cut from the current 6.50% level only in January 2027.

Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the upside. Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger renewed pressures on global energy prices, complicating the disinflation process. At the same time, periods of heightened risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, with Romania particularly exposed given its large fiscal and current account deficits.

On Wednesday, July CPI data is released. We expect the release to mark the beginning of a more favourable base-effect dynamic. As a result, headline inflation should decelerate sharply from 10.4% year-on-year in June to around 7.6% in July. However, this improvement will largely reflect statistical effects rather than a broad-based easing of price pressures. On a month-on-month basis, inflation is likely to accelerate marginally compared with June, suggesting that underlying price dynamics remain somewhat sticky despite the anticipated decline in the annual rate.

Czech Republic: Final CPI reading for July

The registered unemployment rate likely picked up marginally in July, as the industry still did not flip into a decent hiring mode, despite a tangible pickup in production and a relatively positive outlook. Headline inflation is set to be confirmed in the second release on Tuesday, with the core rate estimated to have remained stable in July.

The current account deficit deepened in June, with imports for both investment purposes and inputs pre-stocking driving the adjustment.

Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING

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