Not Dying Yet, The Quad Even With Trump Has A Vital Role To Play

Yet, as much as the leaders of the four nations have exercised their agency in distinct ways – including, at times, changing the trajectory of the Quad to be less ambitious – the structural dynamics in the Indo-Pacific remain unchanged.

China's rapid military buildup, extensive maritime aggression, economically destabilizing practices, wolf-warrior diplomacy and violent border clashes have altered the strategic calculations of the region for the foreseeable future.

This is why, before the Trump administration took office in January 2025, the four Quad nations dramatically expanded the group's scope and ambitions. The members agreed to cooperate on everything from fighting cancer to developing vaccines to enhancing cyber security.

They declared at their last leaders' summit that the“Quad countries have built a vital and enduring regional grouping that will buttress the Indo-Pacific for decades to come.”

This is not to say there haven't been challenges.

No single issue has been more problematic for Quad ambitions in the second Trump administration than US-India ties.

For decades, US presidents have all touted the importance to American's national interests of a powerful, independent and democratic India. In their view, India served as a helpful counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific. It was the first Trump administration, after all, that resuscitated the Quad in 2017. (The group was originally formed in 2007, but fell apart soon after that.)

Trump also befriended Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first term, calling him“one of America's greatest, most devoted and most loyal friends.”

Since 2025, however, India-US relations have soured due to the second Trump administration's massive immigration crackdown, his tariffs on India, tensions over India's purchases of Russian oil and Trump's growing closeness with Pakistan.

And, after a testy exchange between Trump and Modi over the phone last June, Trump reportedly canceled his plans to travel to India for the summit.

Beijing has been opposed to the Quad since its inception, accusing the four democratic members of engaging in a Cold War mentality while encircling and antagonizing China. Beijing said it would accelerate its own military modernization in response.

After the Quad disbanded in 2008 – for reasons that remain debated – one US scholar argued:“The Quad came down and China did exactly what it said it was going to do if the Quad persisted.”

Unsurprisingly, China has continued to oppose the Quad since it regrouped. It still sees the Quad the same way the four members envisioned it – as an effective albeit still nascent counterbalance to China.

At this week's foreign ministers' meeting in India, the Quad members agreed to jointly build a port in Fiji, increase critical minerals cooperation and expand maritime cooperation in the region.

Beijing wasn't impressed. Almost immediately after the meeting ended, Chinese state media ran a story with the headline,“Beijing blasts exclusive cliques after Quad meeting.”