COLCAP Bounces 0.43% As Right Surges Late - Rio Times

Date

2026-05-20 05:00:39

(MENAFN- The Rio Times)

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Colombia Live Market Board

Live market data
May 20, 05:40

COLCAP 2,118 -0.22%

USD/COP 3,792 -0.15%

BRENT 109.92 -1.22%

WTI 102.92 -4.50%

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
COLCAP	2,118	-0.22%	-	9.04	9.05	9.02	4,133
USD/COP	3,792	-0.15%	-9.03%	3,798	3,794	3,773	-
BRENT	109.92	-1.22%	+68.12%	111.28	111.50	109.51	4,086
WTI	102.92	-4.50%	+64.51%	107.77	104.45	102.50	26,486
ECOPETROL	14.01	+1.45%	+63.48%	13.81	14.01	13.49	3,225,669
BANCOLOMBIA	63.74	-0.44%	+51.11%	64.02	64.58	63.16	319,223
GRUPO AVAL	4.04	-3.58%	+45.85%	4.19	4.26	4.02	209,388
TECNOGLASS	38.98	-1.24%	-54.57%	39.47	39.65	38.30	296,776
CREDICORP	315.79	+3.93%	+58.79%	303.86	316.57	303.87	646,574
BUENAVENTURA	32.87	-3.35%	+121.94%	34.01	33.43	32.12	1,007,449
SOUTHERN COPPER	169.00	-1.69%	+91.08%	171.90	171.85	165.23	988,889

Largest live moves in this report universe

WTI
102.92
-4.50% CREDICORP
315.79
+3.93% GRUPO AVAL
4.04
-3.58% BUENAVENTURA
32.87
-3.35% SOUTHERN COPPER
169.00
-1.69% ECOPETROL
14.01
+1.45% TECNOGLASS
38.98
-1.24% BRENT
109.92
-1.22%

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Wednesday, May 20, 2026 · Covering Tuesday May 19 session Summary

COLCAP Colombia today reflects Tuesday's 0.43% bounce to 2,110.01, recovering part of Monday's drop. The relief came as Polymarket showed De la Espriella surging to 44%, ahead of Cepeda 's 42% - the late right consolidation the market wanted. The election is 11 days out. RSI 35.15 still oversold.

The Big Three 1.
COLCAP closed Tuesday at 2,110.01 (+0.43%, +8.93 pts), recovering part of Monday's drop and re-entering the lower cloud. Range 2,094–2,123. The bounce was modest because the election binary is 11 days out and the COLCAP is the LatAm market most exposed to a single domestic event. Brazil fell 1.52% on its own election scandal; Colombia steadied. 2.
The relief tracked a polling shift. Polymarket now shows De la Espriella surging to 44%, ahead of Cepeda's 42%. Cepeda (Petro continuity) still cannot cross the 50% threshold. A consolidated anti-Petro vote improves runoff arithmetic, lifting equities off Monday's low. 3.
RSI fast 35.15, slow 37.93 - still oversold. MACD histogram −5.74 (Monday −8.21), narrowing, positive-turning continues. The close sits between the cloud bottom 2,089 and cloud top 2,120; the 200-DMA at 2,042.58 is the 3.2% floor. BanRep at 11.25%; the Petro rupture is unresolved. COLCAP Close 2,110.01 +0.43% Election 11 days May 31 first round BanRep 11.25% Held April 30 RSI Fast 35.15 Oversold 02 Session Data

Metric	Value	Change	Context
COLCAP close	2,110.01	+0.43%	Re-entered lower cloud
Intraday range	2,094 – 2,123	29 pts	Held above cloud floor
Cloud band	2,089 – 2,120	Close inside	Cloud top is resistance
RSI fast / slow	35.15 / 37.93	Recovering	Still oversold
MACD histogram	−5.74	Narrowing	From Monday −8.21
Polymarket De la Espriella	~44%	Surging	Now ahead of Cepeda
Polymarket Cepeda	~42%	Slipped to 2nd	Under 50% threshold

Source: BVC, BanRep, Polymarket, TradingView. Snapshot: May 20, 2026 06:32 UTC. 03 Why It Bounced Local Driver: Right consolidates late on Polymarket

Polymarket now shows De la Espriella at 44%, ahead of Cepeda's 42% - the late consolidation the market wanted. The Invamer survey April 26 had Cepeda 44.3%, De la Espriella 21.5%, Valencia 19.8%; the prediction-market move signals the right coalescing. A consolidated opposition improves the runoff arithmetic, since any head-to-head projects against Cepeda.

External Trigger: No fresh Warsh follow-through

Global yields stalled and the dollar bid eased after Friday's Warsh shock, removing the external pressure that compounded Monday's drop. With the peso steadier, the COLCAP traded its own catalyst. The bounce stayed modest because the BBVA short-COP call remains live and the binary is 11 days out - the relief is conditional on the polling holding.

§04 · Market Commentary

The market is trading the runoff arithmetic, not the first round. With Cepeda unable to cross 50% and the right consolidating, the probability of an anti-Petro runoff win has risen - lifting equities off Monday's low. The 2022 precedent looms: Credicorp called the FX market binary, citing the peso's jump from 3,800 to 5,200 around Petro's inauguration. A clean consolidation cuts that tail.

Technically the bounce is shallow. The close re-entered the lower cloud but sits below the 2,120 cloud top. RSI 35 still oversold, MACD narrowing. The 200-DMA at 2,042 is the structural floor. The next 11 days are pure polling sensitivity: a right consolidation extends the relief; a Cepeda recovery toward 50% re-prices the downside.

05 Technical Snapshot

MSCI COLCAP daily, BVC. TradingView · May 20, 2026 06:32 UTC

COLCAP closed at 2,110.01, re-entering the lower cloud after Monday's sub-cloud close. The cloud spans 2,089–2,120; the close sits inside, the cloud top 2,120 the immediate resistance and the 20-DMA at 2,131 above. The 200-DMA at 2,042.58 is the 3.2% structural floor, untested this cycle. MACD histogram −5.74 narrowing from Monday's −8.21, positive-turning. RSI fast 35.15, slow 37.93 - oversold, modest recovery.

Resistance: 2,120 (cloud top) → 2,131 (20-DMA) → 2,204 (Kijun) Support: 2,094 (Tuesday low) → 2,089 (cloud floor) → 2,042 (200-DMA) Invalidation: A daily close below 2,042 breaks the 200-DMA and the long-term uptrend. 06 Forward Look This week · Polling clarity Final polls before May 31. A confirmed right consolidation extends the relief toward the cloud top; a Cepeda recovery toward 50% re-prices the downside. May 31 · First round (11 days) Binary. Cepeda above 50% = outright win, COLCAP tests 2,042. A fragmented result forcing a June 21 runoff favors the anti-Petro arithmetic, relief toward 2,204. June 21 · Runoff If triggered. Weighted polls suggest Cepeda narrowly loses to Valencia and ties De la Espriella. The matchup sets the repricing. June BanRep · Post-election The first meeting after the vote sets the post-Petro rate path. The rupture and peso frame it. 07 Questions & Answers Why did the COLCAP bounce Tuesday? A polling shift. Polymarket showed De la Espriella surging to 44%, ahead of Cepeda's 42%. Because Cepeda cannot cross 50%, a consolidated right improves the runoff arithmetic, lifting equities off Monday's low. The bounce was modest because the binary is 11 days out and the BBVA short-COP call remains live. Why does the right consolidating help the COLCAP? Runoff math. Cepeda leads the first round but is projected to lose any head-to-head. The risk was a fragmented right splitting the anti-Petro vote and handing Cepeda a plurality path. De la Espriella surging to 44% signals the opposition coalescing, raising the probability of an anti-Petro runoff win and cutting the 2022-style peso tail Credicorp flagged. Where does the COLCAP find resistance and support? The close re-entered the lower cloud (2,089–2,120). The cloud top 2,120 is the first resistance, then the 20-DMA at 2,131 and Kijun at 2,204. Support is the cloud floor 2,089, then the 200-DMA at 2,042 - the structural floor untested this cycle. RSI 35 oversold and MACD positive-turning give the floor credibility. Verdict

Tuesday's 0.43% bounce recovered part of Monday's drop as Polymarket showed De la Espriella surging to 44%, ahead of Cepeda's 42% - the late right consolidation the market wanted. A consolidated opposition improves the runoff arithmetic and cuts the 2022-style peso tail. The bounce stayed shallow: RSI 35 oversold, the close inside the lower cloud, the binary 11 days out.

Related: Monday's election-risk drop · Three-way race deep analysis · Brazil election scandal parallel.

Confirmation gate: 2,120 cloud top. Clear = relief toward 2,204; reject = cloud-floor retest at 2,089.

Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.