China Has Played Key Role In Iran War And Will Continue To Do So

On May 2, China's Ministry of Commerce ordered firms not to comply with US sanctions on five Chinese refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade. This enables the refiners to continue processing Iranian crude that arrives by train or is already outside the blockade area. Roughly 160 million barrels of Iranian crude were in transit or in floating storage at sea as of April 21.

China's economic support for Iran is emerging as a source of friction between Washington and Beijing ahead of Trump's upcoming summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. In an interview with Fox News on May 4, the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said China's continued purchases of Iranian oil amounted to funding global terrorism.

However, the influence of China over Iran's economy gives it leverage over Tehran. And it does appear to be in the interests of China for the war to end. Rising prices are beginning to affect the Chinese economy, and helping the conflict come to an end would also assist the Chinese government in its push to present itself as the responsible global power.

China has already played an important diplomatic role in the conflict. While Pakistan has served as one of the key mediators between the US and Iran, many analysts have credited China as being the key driving force behind the April ceasefire. At that time, Iranian officials said China had asked them to show flexibility and defuse tensions.

China seems to have continued pressing Iran to negotiate with the US since then. Hours after Trump announced he was pausing the US effort to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. This is the first time Araghchi has travelled to China since the war broke out.

In a statement released after the meeting, the Chinese foreign ministry said:“China considers that a complete cessation of fighting must be achieved without delay... and that continuing to negotiate remains essential.” Also after the meeting Araghchi said Iran would protect its“legitimate rights and interests in the negotiations” but will“accept a fair and comprehensive agreement.”

At the same time, there are some signs that China is hedging its bets. A protracted war involving the US in the Middle East has advantages for China too, primarily because it would divert US attention from the Asia-Pacific region. Reports suggest that China is considering taking steps that would help Iran militarily if a full-blown conflict returns.