US-Iran Peace Deal To Redraw Market Winners And Losers
There will be clear winners and losers across global stock markets should the US and Iran reach a peace deal this weekend, affirms the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The comments from deVere Group's Nigel Green comes as a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold, oil prices retreat from recent highs, and global equities push toward the end of the week on a firmer footing, buoyed by expectations that diplomacy between Washington and Tehran could accelerate.
Global equities have shown resilience throughout the conflict. The S&P 500 has continued to print record closes, supported by strong earnings and confidence that disruption will be contained.
The FTSE 100 is sitting within striking distance of its own peak, while Asian markets are on track for a second consecutive week of gains despite a softer tone at the end of the week.
At the same time, oil has pulled back below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with Brent trading around the high-$90s after briefly pushing above $100 earlier in the week.
Even after the recent dip, prices remain sharply higher than the roughly $60 levels seen at the start of the year, reflecting months of supply disruption linked to instability in the Gulf and constraints around the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigel Green says the next phase hinges on whether diplomatic momentum translates into a formal agreement.
Attention, he argues, should shift toward sectors that benefit from lower input costs and improving economic visibility.
Financials could also see renewed momentum.
Tech and growth stocks, already a dominant force in US markets, could extend their lead.
Yet he warns that markets may be underestimating the speed and scale of any adjustment.
Geography will also matter.
Meanwhile, regions and economies that have relied heavily on elevated commodity prices may face headwinds.
The broader takeaway, Nigel Green concludes, is that investors are entering a pivotal moment.
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