Ibovespa Falls As War, Copom Fears Mount

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times - B3/Ibovespa Daily Report · Covering March 13 Session · Published March 16, 2026

Ibovespa 177,653.31 −0.91% USD/BRL R$ 5.3163 +1.41% Brent Crude $103.14 +2.67% Selic Rate 15.00% Next: Mar 18 The Big Three 1 Ibovespa posts third straight weekly loss as Hormuz standoff enters week three. The index fell 0.91% on Friday to 177,653 after a failed morning recovery that briefly reached 180,995. Brent crude closed above $103 for a second consecutive session despite the IEA's record 400-million-barrel reserve release. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the largest wave of U.S. strikes against Iranian targets on Friday, cementing the blockade. 2 Super Wednesday repricing accelerates - Copom 50 bp cut fades to 23% probability. Options on the Copom decision shifted dramatically: the 50 bp cut collapsed from 65.5% on March 5 to 23% by Friday, while 25 bp rose to 53% and outright maintenance surged to 25%. Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and UBS BB all moved to a 25 bp call. JPMorgan remains the notable outlier still expecting 50 bp. 3 U.S. Q4 GDP slashed to +0.7%, deepening global stagflation fears. The Commerce Department revised fourth-quarter growth sharply lower from 1.4% to 0.7%, well below consensus and a steep deceleration from Q3's 4.4%. The S&P 500 posted a new 2026 low and fell for a third straight week. Consumer sentiment slipped to 55.5 per the University of Michigan survey. 01 Session Data

Metric	Value	Change
Ibovespa Close	177,653.31	−0.91%
Session High	180,995.79	-
Session Low	177,321.97	-
Volume	R$ 29.48 bn	-
USD/BRL	R$ 5.3163	+1.41%
DXY	100.01	−0.10%
VIX	27.19	−0.37%
Brent Crude	$103.14	+2.67%
Gold	$5,062	−1.25%
Iron Ore	$104.00	+2.33%
US 10-Year	4.285%	+3 bps
S&P 500	6,632.19	−0.61%

Key Movers

Ticker	Close (R$)	Change
SLCE3 (SLC Agrícola)	-	+2.51%
BBSE3 (BB Seguridade)	-	+1.98%
TIMS3 (TIM)	-	+1.49%
BRKM5 (Braskem)	-	−6.97%
CSNA3 (CSN)	-	−6.23%
HAPV3 (Hapvida)	-	−6.17%

02 Market Commentary

The Ibovespa fell 0.91% on Friday to close at 177,653, completing a third consecutive losing week - a streak not seen since September 2025. The index attempted a morning recovery, briefly touching 180,995 as Brent crude softened on reports that Iran approved two Indian-flagged LPG tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The optimism evaporated when oil reversed higher and Wall Street opened weak on the sharp downward GDP revision. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.

Only 20 of 85 Ibovespa constituents finished in the green. SLC Agrícola led with a 2.51% gain, boosted by the IBGE crop forecast showing soybean output on track for a record 344.1 million tons. BB Seguridade rose 1.98% as investors rotated into defensive insurance names. TIM rounded out the top three at +1.49%. In the losers' column, Braskem plunged 6.97%, CSN fell 6.23% on persistent leverage concerns tied to a potential $1.5 billion loan secured against CSN Cimentos shares, and Hapvida dropped 6.17%.

Among heavyweights, Vale shed 1.19% despite a 2.33% rise in Dalian iron ore, while Petrobras declined 0.53% (PN) and 0.10% (ON) even as Brent closed above $103. Petrobras's 11.6% diesel price hike announced Friday - which, according to BCG Liquidez, effectively offset the government's fuel-subsidy package from the day before - added to the negative sentiment. Banking stocks underperformed broadly: Bradesco PN fell 2.06%, Banco do Brasil lost 1.73%, and BTG Pactual dropped 1.76%.

David Martins, CIO of Brazil Wealth, noted that uncertainty about the war's duration forced investors to unwind volatile positions ahead of a "totally unpredictable" weekend. The Copom Opções de Copom market showed a dramatic shift: the 50 bp Selic cut had a 65.5% implied probability on March 5 but collapsed to 23% by Friday's close, with 25 bp at 53% and maintenance at 25%. Goldman Sachs revised its Brazil inflation forecast for 2026 from 4.1% to 4.4% and shifted to a 25 bp call.

03 Technical Analysis Daily (1D)

The Ibovespa closed at 177,653 with a bearish candle featuring an upper wick to 180,995 - the failed morning recovery - before sellers pushed the index to 177,321 at the lows. The MACD line crossed below zero at −24.92, with the signal line at 1,579.46 and the histogram deepening to −1,604.38, the most negative reading since the selloff accelerated in early March. This confirms bearish momentum is building. The RSI sits at 54.03 on the 14-day reading and 41.23 on the faster signal, both declining and far from oversold territory.

Price remains well above the 200-day simple moving average at 152,703, so the broader uptrend structure is intact. However, the index has surrendered roughly 15,000 points - nearly 8% - from the 192,624 all-time high in under three weeks. The Bollinger Bands are widening with the index tracking near the lower band, a classic sign of trending-market volatility rather than mean-reversion conditions.

Volume at R$ 29.48 billion was below the recent average, suggesting Friday's decline was driven more by an absence of buyers than aggressive institutional selling. The weekly chart shows three consecutive red candles for the first time since September 2025, reinforcing the near-term bearish posture. The Ichimoku cloud still provides support below with the Senkou Span B at approximately 175,991.

Level	Points	Reference
Resistance 3	183,462	Feb/Mar congestion zone
Resistance 2	181,508	Tenkan-sen
Resistance 1	178,281	Kijun-sen
Close	177,653	March 13 close
Support 1	177,047	Lower Bollinger Band
Support 2	175,991	Senkou Span B
Support 3	152,703	200-day SMA

04 Forward Look Copom Decision (March 18)

The marquee event of the week. The committee is expected to begin cutting the Selic from 15%, but the magnitude is wide open - the market is split between 25 bps (53%), 50 bps (23%), and maintenance (25%). The accompanying statement will be scrutinized for forward guidance, particularly any language signaling that oil-driven inflation risks could slow the easing path. A hawkish 25 bp cut could stabilize the real; a surprise hold would likely push USD/BRL above 5.40.

Federal Reserve (March 18–19)

The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% with 99% probability. The updated dot plot and Powell's press conference will be critical for assessing whether the oil shock has altered the 2026 rate-cut timeline. Markets have pulled back from three cuts to two, and any further hawkish repricing would strengthen the dollar and weigh on emerging-market assets.

Iran and Hormuz

Weekend headlines will set Monday's tone. Trump claimed Iran is "about to surrender," while Iran's supreme leader vowed to keep the strait closed. Any confirmed reopening of shipping lanes would trigger a sharp oil sell-off and equity relief rally. Further strikes on Kharg Island energy infrastructure could push Brent toward $110–120.

Election Noise

A Realtime/Bigdata poll in Minas Gerais showed Lula (35%) in a statistical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro (31%) for the October 2026 race. Finance Minister Haddad's formal PT candidacy launch for São Paulo's governorship next Thursday could shift political risk perceptions and add fiscal policy noise.

Verdict

Bias: BEARISH

The Ibovespa has now lost nearly 15,000 points from its February peak of 192,624 in under three weeks, erasing roughly eight percent of its value. The correction has graduated from a normal pullback into a sustained risk repricing driven by $103 oil, hotter-than-expected inflation, and a government scrambling to contain fuel costs. The technical picture confirms the deterioration: the MACD has crossed below zero, the RSI is declining without being oversold, and the weekly chart shows three consecutive red candles.

This week's Super Wednesday - with both Copom and the Fed reporting within hours of each other - is the single most important event for Brazilian assets in 2026 so far. The Copom outcome will be binary: either the committee signals confidence in the disinflation trajectory and delivers a meaningful cut, or it disappoints with a cautious 25 bps (or a hold) that validates the DI curve's aggressive repricing.

The 175,991–177,047 support zone represents the last line of defense before a test of the 170,000 area. A break below 175,991 would take the index through the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since the January rally. The bull case requires either a credible Hormuz resolution or an aggressive Copom signal that domestic policy can offset the external shock. Neither is the base case today.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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