Colombia Stock Market COLCAP: Ecopetrol Surges 9%

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Daily Market Brief. Colombia Monday, March 16, 2026 · Covering the session of Friday, March 13, 2026 The Big Three 1. COLCAP Closed Last Week Up 0.39% as Ecopetrol Exploded 9%. The MSCI COLCAP rose 0.39% to 2,180.75 on Friday, a modest rebound from Thursday's 4.53% rout. The session was defined by a dramatic divergence: Ecopetrol surged 9.17% to COP 2,570 as Brent climbed above $103, while financials continued to bleed with Grupo Cibest falling 3.21% and Grupo Aval Preferred shedding 5.01%. ETB soared 14.35% in a volatile session. 2. Peso Extended Rally Last Week; Dollar Lost COP 110. The TRM was set at COP 3,685.53 for March 14–16, down COP 14.93 (−0.40%), reaching levels not seen since February 19. The dollar lost COP 110 between Monday and Friday, per Portafolio, as the post-election peso rally extended into its second week. The SPOT closed at COP 3,697.10 with USD 1.396 billion in transactions. 3. Brent Closed Above $103 Friday; Kharg Island Strikes Over Weekend. Brent settled at $103.14 on Friday (+2.67%), its second consecutive close above $100. WTI ended at $98.71 (+3.11%). After markets closed Friday, President Trump ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island, the nation's oil export hub. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, posting its third consecutive losing week. Brent opened Monday near $105 as the war enters its third week. Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Change
COLCAP Close (BVC)	2,180.75	+0.39%
Intraday Range	2,162.26 – 2,197.81	-
USD/COP TRM (Mar 14–16)	COP 3,685.53	−0.40%
USD/COP SPOT Close	COP 3,697.10	-
Brent Crude (Fri close)	$103.14	+2.67%
WTI Crude (Fri close)	$98.71	+3.11%
S&P 500 (Fri close)	6,632.19	−0.61%
Brent (Mon pre-mkt)	~$105.36	+2.15%
COLCAP from ATH (2,562)	-	−14.87%

Colombia Stock Market COLCAP Today: Equities

The Colombia stock market COLCAP today closed last week with a modest 0.39% gain to 2,180.75 on Friday, stabilizing after Thursday's 4.53% plunge. The session was defined by a stark internal divergence: Ecopetrol surged 9.17% to COP 2,570 as Brent crude climbed toward $103, while financial heavyweights continued to sell off. ETB jumped 14.35% to COP 55 in what was the session's most volatile name, and Grupo Argos rose 3.25% to COP 15,900.

This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior session's report: COLCAP Edges Up 0.12% as Post-Election Rally Cools. Also read: Colombia Inflation Dips but Core Pressures Intensify.

On the losing side, Mineros fell 5.56% to COP 17,000 despite the gold rally, Grupo Aval Preferred shed 5.01% to COP 740, and Grupo Cibest (Bancolombia) dropped 3.21% to COP 80,140. The financial sector's continued weakness underscores the rotation underway: investors are shifting from rate-sensitive banks toward oil-leveraged names as Brent above $100 fundamentally reprices Ecopetrol's earnings outlook. The Colombia stock market COLCAP today reflected this two-speed market in microcosm.

The COLCAP now sits 14.87% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00. The weekly performance was deeply negative despite Friday's bounce, driven by Thursday's devastating session. The dollar lost COP 110 during the week per Portafolio, underscoring the continued post-election peso strength that has been the most constructive signal for Colombian assets since the March 8 congressional vote.

Currency

The Colombian peso exchange rate today continued its remarkable post-election rally. The TRM for March 14–16 was set at COP 3,685.53, down COP 14.93 (−0.40%) from the prior rate, reaching levels not seen since February 19. On the SPOT market, the dollar opened at COP 3,668.55, traded in a range of COP 3,652.10–3,697.10, and closed at COP 3,697.10, according to the com platform. Total SPOT volume was USD 1,395.74 million across the session.

The weekly dollar decline of COP 110 was dramatic, driven by three converging forces: the post-election relief rally (markets interpreting the March 8 congressional results as moderately constructive), surging Brent prices supporting Colombia's terms of trade, and global dollar weakness. Facimex Valores noted the peso has been the second-best performing emerging-market currency since the conflict began, behind only the Colombian peso's own prior session gains.

The Ministry of Finance's 2026 financial plan projects an average USD/COP of COP 3,915-significantly weaker than current levels. The BanRep policy rate remains at 10.25% after the January 30 surprise 100 bps hike. The next decision is March 31, with the surging oil environment complicating any dovish pivot. BBVA Research's March outlook projects inflation could rebound to 6.5% by year-end, with potential rate hikes toward 12.25% if price pressures persist.

Technical Analysis & Chart

Friday's session produced a small-bodied green candle with a lower wick, opening at 2,173.87, dipping to 2,162.26, rallying to 2,197.81, and closing at 2,180.75. The structure is a tentative spinning top that signals indecision rather than conviction, consistent with a market attempting to stabilize after a severe selloff.

Momentum indicators remain bearish but are showing signs of base-building. The MACD line at −7.72 sits above the signal at −32.47, with the histogram at −40.19 still negative but narrowing from the prior session's extremes. RSI readings at 40.72 (fast) and 39.92 (slow) are approaching the classic oversold zone but have not yet reached the 35 level that historically preceded strong bounces in the COLCAP.

The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,973.16 sits 9.5% below current levels, confirming the secular uptrend remains intact. Key resistance now clusters at 2,200.49 and 2,210.38 (prior support zones), while the Bollinger midline near 2,257 represents the level the index must reclaim to signal the corrective phase is ending.

Below 2,162 (Friday's intraday low), the next support sits at 2,077.38, which would represent a roughly 19% correction from the ATH. The COLCAP needs to hold above the 2,163 level to maintain the stabilization narrative; a weekly close above 2,200 would be the first constructive signal since the selloff began.

Key Levels

Level	Price	Significance
Resistance 3	2,302.50	Upper Bollinger Band
Resistance 2	2,257.76	Bollinger midline / MA cluster
Resistance 1	2,210.38	Prior support, now resistance
Last Close	2,180.75	Friday session close
Support 1	2,163.00	Chart support / Bollinger lower
Support 2	2,077.38	Next chart support zone
Support 3	1,973.16	200-day SMA

Global Context

Friday's global session extended the oil-driven selloff. Brent crude settled at $103.14 (+2.67%), its second consecutive close above $100, while WTI ended at $98.71 (+3.11%). The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, marking its third consecutive losing week and a new 2026 low. The Dow shed 0.26% to 46,558.47. CNBC reported the S&P 500's weekly loss of 1.6% was driven by the toxic combination of sticky inflation (core PCE at 3.1%), a weak labor market (U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February), and surging oil.

After markets closed Friday, President Trump ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub. Trump said oil infrastructure was not targeted but warned it could be if Iran continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Brent opened Monday near $105.36 (+2.15%), with WTI at $100.37 (+1.68%). The Iran war is now entering its third week with shipping through the strait still effectively halted.

For the Colombia stock market COLCAP today, the weekend escalation creates a complex setup for Monday's session. The Kharg Island strikes could accelerate the Hormuz crisis - pushing Brent further above $100 and benefiting Ecopetrol - or trigger an Iranian capitulation that collapses the oil premium and reverses the energy trade. The S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% in Sunday night trading, signaling continued caution. The Fed's March 17–18 meeting will dominate the week, with rates expected to hold at 3.50–3.75% but the statement language on oil-driven inflation closely watched.

Looking Ahead

Today (March 16): Markets will react to the weekend Kharg Island strikes. Brent is trading above $105 in pre-market. Nvidia's GTC conference begins today, which could provide a counterweight to oil-driven selling in tech. S&P 500 futures indicate a modestly lower open.

March 17–18: The Federal Reserve 's second monetary policy meeting of 2026. No rate change expected, but the dot plot and statement language on oil-driven inflation will be pivotal. Any hawkish shift would strengthen the dollar and pressure the peso's recent gains.

March 31: BanRep's next rate decision. The policy rate at 10.25% after January's surprise 100 bps hike, combined with $103+ Brent feeding into inflation expectations, makes any dovish pivot virtually impossible. The market is fully priced for a hold.

Political calendar: The presidential campaign intensifies toward the May 31 first round. Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático) and Claudia López lead the right and center lanes respectively after the March 8 consultas. Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) remains the left's standard-bearer. Oxford Economics projects the electoral outcome as a 50-50 probability between policy continuity and a pro-market reversal - a binary risk that will increasingly drive peso and equity volatility through Q2.

Verdict

Friday's session revealed a market in transition. The COLCAP's 0.39% gain was almost entirely an Ecopetrol story: the oil giant's 9.17% surge as Brent exceeded $103 offset the continued financial-sector bleeding that has characterized the correction. This two-speed market - energy versus financials - is likely to persist as long as oil remains above $100 and the Hormuz crisis keeps global risk appetite suppressed.

The peso's weekly gain of COP 110 against the dollar is the most constructive signal for Colombian assets. It reflects genuine post-election relief, carries positive implications for inflation (a stronger peso reduces import costs), and demonstrates that Colombia is attracting relative flows versus its EM peers. However, the weekend Kharg Island escalation puts this rally at risk if the conflict widens further.

Bias: Neutral near-term, cautiously constructive medium-term. The COLCAP is attempting to stabilize after a severe correction, and the peso's strength provides a fundamental floor. But the Kharg Island strikes have escalated the war just as markets were beginning to find their footing. The Fed decision this week and the Strait of Hormuz situation remain the two dominant pivots. A close above 2,200 this week would turn the near-term bias bullish; a break below 2,163 reopens the path toward 2,077.

MENAFN16032026007421016031ID1110865842