Merval Index Falls 1.96% But Holds Weekly Gains

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Daily Market Brief. Argentina Monday, March 16, 2026 · Covering the session of Friday, March 13, 2026 The Big Three 1. Merval Dropped 1.96% Friday but Saved the Week in Green. The S&P Merval fell 1.96% to 2,642,584 in pesos and 2.8% to USD 1,798.30 in dollar terms (CCL) on Friday. However, Cepec reported that the index still closed the week with a +0.63% gain in pesos and +1.31% in dollars - a resilient performance given the global oil shock. El Cronista noted the Merval is up 3.3% in dollars for March, at approximately USD 1,869. 2. February CPI at 2.9% Beat Expectations, Complicating Disinflation. INDEC reported February inflation at 2.9%, above the 2.7% market consensus. Ámbito noted suspicious pre-announcement trading in inflation-linked bonds and prediction markets. The data complicates Milei's goal of breaking below 1% monthly by H2 2026, particularly with March expected to be worse due to seasonal factors and the oil shock's energy-price impact. 3. BCRA Hit 48 Consecutive Buying Sessions Last Week, USD 3.3B in 2026. The central bank purchased USD 45 million on Friday, extending its streak to 48 consecutive sessions and bringing 2026 accumulation to USD 3,298 million - 32% of the annual target. The dollar official held at ARS 1,420 (down ARS 15 on the week), while the blue fell to ARS 1,415. The peso remains the second-best EM currency since the conflict began. Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Change
S&P Merval (ARS)	2,642,584	−1.96%
Merval in USD (CCL)	~1,798.30	−2.8%
Merval Weekly (ARS)	-	+0.63%
Country Risk (EMBI)	~571 bps	+1 pt
USD/ARS Official	ARS 1,420	+5 (day) / −15 (wk)
USD/ARS Blue	ARS 1,415	−5
USD/ARS CCL	ARS 1,471.47	+0.4%
Brent Crude (Fri)	$103.14	+2.67%
February CPI	2.9%	vs 2.7% est.
BCRA 2026 Purchases	USD 3,298M	+USD 45M (Fri)

Merval Index Today: Equities

The Merval index today enters Monday after falling 1.96% to 2,642,584 in pesos on Friday, with ARS 267 billion traded in equities per Cepec. The session extended Wall Street's weakness into Buenos Aires, with Infobae reporting the index dropped 2.8% in dollar terms to approximately USD 1,798.30 via the CCL rate. Despite the Friday selloff, the week was a net positive: the Merval gained 0.63% in pesos and 1.31% in dollars, a resilient outcome given the oil shock's severity.

This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior report: Argentina Merval Edges Up 0.25% to 2.63M as Oil Lifts Energy Stocks. Also read: S&P Merval Dips 0.4% as Six Banks Urge Exit From Argentina.

The Merval index today session was dominated by the February CPI print of 2.9%, which INDEC released Thursday and exceeded the 2.7% consensus. Ámbito reported suspicious pre-announcement trading in CER bonds and prediction markets, suggesting possible information leakage. The above-consensus inflation data, combined with oil above $103 and seasonal factors in March, dims prospects for the disinflation path that is central to the Milei economic program.

The index closed 19.83% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. El Cronista noted the Merval is up 3.3% in dollars for March at approximately USD 1,869 - a notable relative outperformance compared to the mid-February lows. The energy sector's Vaca Muerta exposure continues to provide a partial hedge against the global selloff, though it was insufficient to prevent Friday's broad decline.

Argentina Peso Exchange Rate Today

The Argentina peso exchange rate today showed a remarkable decoupling from the equity selloff. After three consecutive sessions of strengthening, the dollar reversed marginally higher on Friday: the official rate added ARS 5 to close at ARS 1,420 at Banco Nación, while the blue dollar fell ARS 5 to ARS 1,415 - notably trading below the official rate. The mayorista closed at ARS 1,400, up ARS 5.50 on the day but down ARS 16 on the week, per Infobae.

Financial dollars edged higher: MEP at ARS 1,423.70 and CCL at ARS 1,471.47. The brecha cambiaria between official and CCL remains compressed at approximately 3.6%. The BCRA continued its remarkable accumulation streak, purchasing USD 45 million on Friday - its 48th consecutive buying session - bringing 2026 total purchases to USD 3,298 million, equivalent to 32% of the annual target. Gross reserves closed at USD 45,659 million, though they fell USD 345 million on the week due to debt payments and mark-to-market adjustments.

The mayorista at ARS 1,400 sits 16.28% below the BCRA's band ceiling of ARS 1,627.97, providing ample intervention room. The next ceiling for April will be ARS 1,703 per Infobae. The peso's resilience through the oil shock - the official rate actually fell ARS 15 on the week despite $103 Brent - underscores the structural support from the BCRA's reserve accumulation program and the carry trade at the 29% TNA policy rate.

Technical Analysis & Chart

Friday's session produced a bearish candle, opening at 2,695,423, rallying to 2,722,456 (the high) before selling off to a low of 2,630,564 and closing at 2,642,584. The upper wick and close near the lower end of the range signal that early buyers were overwhelmed by sellers as Wall Street deteriorated through the session.

Momentum indicators remain under pressure. The MACD line at 10,788 sits above the signal at −77,989, but the histogram at −88,777 is deeply negative. RSI readings at 40.29 (fast) and 37.39 (slow) show the slow component nearing the oversold zone that has historically preceded tactical bounces. The 200-day SMA cluster at approximately 2,522,654 and 2,465,484 provides structural support 4.5–6.7% below current levels.

Key resistance sits at the 2,646,170–2,650,062 zone (where Friday's close sits essentially on support/resistance), then 2,714,697 and 2,725,818 (MA cluster). The ATH of 3,296,502 remains 19.83% overhead. The correction is now approaching five months in duration from the January peak, the longest drawdown since the pre-election selloff of mid-2025.

Below 2,630,564 (Friday's low), the next support sits at 2,522,654 (200-day SMA). A break below the 200-day would be the most bearish technical signal since the Milei-era bull market began, potentially targeting the 2,465,484 secondary zone. Conversely, a close above 2,725,818 this week would signal the corrective phase is ending.

Key Levels

Level	Price	Significance
Resistance 3	2,906,541	Upper Bollinger Band
Resistance 2	2,801,575	Mid-Bollinger / prior support
Resistance 1	2,725,818	Moving average cluster
Last Close	2,642,584	Friday session close
Support 1	2,630,564	Friday intraday low
Support 2	2,522,654	200-day SMA
Support 3	2,465,484	Secondary 200-day zone

Global Context

Friday capped a punishing week for global markets. Brent closed at $103.14 (+2.67%), its second consecutive settlement above $100, while WTI ended at $98.71 (+3.11%). Infobae reported Brent's weekly gain was nearly 12% and the monthly surge has reached 53%. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, posting its third consecutive losing week and a new 2026 low. After Friday's close, Trump ordered strikes on Kharg Island; Brent opened Monday near $105.

For Argentina, the oil dynamic remains uniquely favorable on the export side. Vaca Muerta's growing production means elevated crude directly benefits the current account, export duty revenues, and energy-sector equities. However, as Infobae's weekly wrap-up noted, the BCRA's gross reserves fell USD 345 million on the week despite continued spot purchases, reflecting debt payments and mark-to-market losses that the oil windfall has not fully offset.

The Merval index today weekly resilience (+0.63% in pesos, +1.31% in dollars per Cepec) despite Friday's selloff reflects Argentina's unique positioning: the energy export benefit partially hedges the global risk-off, and the BCRA's relentless reserve accumulation provides a structural floor for the peso. The country risk near 571 bps remains stubbornly above the 500 threshold needed for sovereign market re-access, but well below the September 2025 peak of 1,456.

Looking Ahead

Today (March 16): Markets react to the weekend Kharg Island strikes. Brent is above $105 in pre-market. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%. The Merval will face gap risk at the open given Friday's ADR weakness in New York.

March 17–18: The Federal Reserve rate decision. No change expected, but the dot plot and statement on oil-driven inflation will shape EM rate expectations and peso dynamics. The compressed Argentina-Fed rate differential (29% TNA vs 3.50–3.75%) continues to support the carry trade.

Inflation outlook: February's 2.9% exceeded consensus and March is expected to be worse due to seasonal factors and oil-driven energy cost pass-through. The government's goal of reaching sub-1% monthly inflation by H2 2026 now looks increasingly unrealistic unless the Hormuz crisis resolves quickly.

Structural factors: The BCRA's 48-session buying streak and USD 3.3 billion accumulation provide the fundamental anchor for the peso. ABECEB projects 3.4% GDP growth for 2026, down from 3.9% previously. The Merval index today remains approximately 20% below its ATH, with the energy-vs-financial divergence likely to persist as long as oil trades above $100. Country risk near 571 bps and the upcoming agro liquidation season (starting April) are the two domestic catalysts to watch.

Verdict

Friday's 1.96% Merval decline masked a surprisingly resilient week. The index saved its weekly gains despite the global oil shock, the above-consensus CPI print, and Wall Street posting 2026 lows. This relative strength reflects Argentina's unique energy-export positioning and the peso's carry-trade appeal at 29% TNA - factors that have made the market a partial safe haven within the EM universe, even as the absolute drawdown from the ATH exceeds 19%.

The peso story remains the most remarkable feature. The official dollar falling ARS 15 on the week while Brent surged 12% is a testament to the BCRA's reserve accumulation program and the structural carry demand. The blue-official convergence at ARS 1,415–1,420 represents an unprecedented period of FX stability under the Milei administration.

Bias: Neutral near-term, cautiously constructive medium-term. The RSI slow at 37.39 is approaching oversold but the weekend Kharg Island escalation introduces gap risk that could push the index below the 2,630,564 Friday low. Country risk at 571 bps is the key watch level - a move above 600 would signal stress, while compression below 500 remains the catalyst for a broad re-rating. The Merval's weekly resilience suggests the market is digesting the oil shock better than feared, but the February CPI surprise complicates the medium-term disinflation narrative.

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