Claims Russia Helping Iran Target US Assets Are Credible

From a Russian perspective, the entire Ukrainian conflict reduces to the US using Ukraine as a proxy against it - one capable of carrying out increasingly audacious attacks without triggering World War III, since the US is not directly involved even though its role is indisputably indispensable.

By the same logic, using Iran as a proxy serves the same purpose, with the same guardrails against World War III breaking out – though this would not come without risks if the report is accurate.

As noted earlier, Putin's credibility as a mediator would be discredited if the Washington Post report is accurate. So, too, would Russia's carefully maintained regional balancing act, in which the Gulf states play an important role, if it emerged that Russia provided Iran with intelligence for targeting the US bases on their territories.

Unless the US shares evidence with them directly, however, the Gulf states are unlikely to distance themselves meaningfully from Russia, even though suspicions may linger.

The greatest risk lies in how Trump responds to the news, which he said was a“stupid question” when asked by a Fox News reporter on Friday. If pressed, he may eventually dismiss it as fake news, downplay it – perhaps even cheekily referencing US assistance to Ukraine against Russia – or overreact.

Overreaction is possible if his close political allies such as Senator Lindsey Graham, the CIA or other security agencies pressure him to do so, in which case Trump might escalate the Ukraine war.

What form that escalation might take is difficult to predict, given that America's current priority is the Iran war, but at a minimum, Trump might suspend his mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine. More extreme responses could include stricter secondary sanctions enforcement or even the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.