Mexico IPC Drops 1% As Cemex Drags Peso Slips To 17.23

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Big Three 1 The S&P/BMV IPC fell 1.00% on Thursday to close at 70,888.04 - its sharpest single-session drop in two weeks and now 1.2% below the intraday all-time high of 71,760.95 touched earlier this week. Cemex led the decline at −3.01% to MXN 21.60 after Q4 results revealed EBITDA margin compression, followed by concession operator Pinfra at −2.49% to MXN 295.90. The session's risk-off tone was driven by pre-positioning ahead of Friday's critical US January CPI release and rising US jobless claims of 227,000. 2 China and Mexico held their first face-to-face trade talks since Mexico imposed tariffs up to 35% on Chinese goods on January 1. Chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang met Deputy Economy Minister Vidal Llerenas in Beijing on Monday, exchanging views on bilateral economic relations as Mexico's tariff reform covering 1,463 products reshapes supply chains ahead of the USMCA review due by July 2026. Beijing had warned Mexico to“think twice” but has not yet announced countermeasures. 3 The peso weakened 0.32% to 17.23 per dollar as a stronger greenback reasserted itself following robust US employment data. January nonfarm payrolls of 130,000 beat the 70,000 consensus while unemployment dropped to 4.3%, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Despite Thursday's setback, the peso remains near multi-year highs, supported by Banxico's 7.00% policy rate and a 325-basis-point carry advantage over the Fed's 3.50–3.75% target range. Market Snapshot - February 12, 2026

Indicator	Close	Change
S&P/BMV IPC	70,888.04	−1.00%
USD/MXN	17.23	+0.32%
10Y Bond (MX)	8.78%	+4 bps
WTI Crude	US$64.99/bbl	+3.05%
Gold	US$4,949/oz	−2.21%
DXY (Dollar Index)	98.76	+0.23%
Banxico Policy Rate	7.00%	Paused (Feb 5)

Equities & Corporate

Mexico's benchmark index snapped a three-session winning streak on Thursday, falling 713 points to close at 70,888.04 - still within striking distance of its all-time intraday high of 71,760.95 reached earlier this week. The session was defined by risk-off positioning ahead of Friday's US January CPI print, which consensus expects at 2.5% year-over-year, down from December's 2.7%. The IPC remains up more than 10% year-to-date and has gained approximately 32.8% over the past twelve months.

Cemex was the session's biggest laggard, sliding 3.01% to MXN 21.60, pressured by its Q4 earnings release that revealed EBITDA margins compressing under rising energy costs and weaker volumes in its European operations. Pinfra dropped 2.49% to MXN 295.90, extending its underperformance relative to the broader infrastructure sector. The cementera and infrastructure plays bore the brunt as rising US 10-year yields pressured duration-sensitive valuations across the BMV.

The session was not uniformly negative. Grupo México surged 3.47% to MXN 199.62 and Industrias Peñoles gained 3.40% to MXN 1,111.00, both buoyed by copper prices hitting fresh highs - a reminder that Mexico's mining complex remains a structural beneficiary of the global electrification and nearshoring themes. Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura (Pinfra) had actually hit an all-time high earlier in the week before Thursday's reversal.

In corporate news, the BMV is preparing for a potential wave of IPO activity in 2026. Director General Jorge Alegría confirmed that four companies are confidentially exploring public offerings, building on the momentum from 2025's breakout year that ended an 8-year drought with the listings of Essentia, Aeroméxico, and Fibra Next. The IPC 's price-to-earnings multiple of 16.3x is approaching its 5-year average of 16.6x, with Grupo Financiero Bx+ estimating 15% earnings growth for 2026 and 11.2% in pesos for Q4 2025.

Currency & Commodities

The peso retreated to 17.23 per dollar, its weakest level of the week, as USD strength reasserted itself following the strong US employment report. The weekly range has spanned 17.14 (registered February 11 - the lowest since mid-2024) to 17.52, with the peso remaining 2.3% stronger year-to-date. The rate differential story remains the peso's anchor: Banxico's 7.00% policy rate against the Fed's 3.50–3.75% target range provides a 325-basis-point carry advantage.

The Dollar Index was the primary driver, rising to 98.76 (+0.23%) - recovering from 4-year lows near 97.60 reached earlier this month. US nonfarm payrolls of 130,000 beat the 70,000 consensus while unemployment fell to 4.3%, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Markets are now pricing two 25-basis-point cuts for the year (June and September) rather than three. Friday's January CPI looms as the next catalyst - consensus expects headline inflation at 2.5% (from 2.7%) and core at 2.6% (from 2.6%).

WTI crude surged 3.05% to US$64.99 per barrel as US-Iran nuclear talks hit a snag, with disagreements over the location and format of scheduled negotiations raising fears of military escalation. The EIA simultaneously reported a crude inventory build of 8.5 million barrels, but geopolitical risk trumped fundamentals on the session. Gold pulled back to US$4,949 per ounce (−2.21%), retreating from the previous session's near-record levels as the stronger dollar weighed on non-yielding assets. For Mexico, higher oil prices support Pemex revenues and fiscal math, but add to imported inflation pressures that complicate Banxico's decision calculus.

The China-Mexico tariff talks in Beijing added a new layer of complexity. Mexico's January 1 tariff hike covering 1,463 tariff codes - with rates up to 50% on non-FTA imports including automobiles, auto parts, textiles, and steel - was widely interpreted as a preemptive move to placate Washington ahead of the USMCA review. Beijing's warning to“think twice” and Monday's meeting suggest China is pushing back, creating a three-way trade dynamic that could influence both FDI flows and peso sentiment through mid-year.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the IPC closed at 70,807.71 with the session printing a high of 71,760.95 - a fresh all-time intraday record - before retreating sharply. Price remains above all major Ichimoku cloud components, with the cloud base providing support near the 68,077 level. The Bollinger Bands are expanding after the breakout above 70,000, with the upper band at 70,904.50 and the 20-period midline at 69,789.73.

The MACD histogram at 13.59 remains positive but has decelerated from its recent peak of 835.01, signaling that bullish momentum is fading in the short term. The signal line at 821.42 is converging toward the MACD line, setting up a potential bearish crossover on the 4-hour timeframe that could confirm a pullback toward the 69,934–69,789 support zone (upper Bollinger to 20-period MA).

RSI sits at 61.24 on the 4-hour and 59.01 on the smoothed signal - moderately bullish territory but no longer overbought after retreating from the 70+ readings seen earlier this week. This suggests room for either continuation or consolidation, with the 55–58 zone acting as the neutral reset level.

Level	Value	Significance
All-Time High	71,760.95	Intraday peak this week
Upper Bollinger	70,904.50	Immediate resistance
4H Close	70,807.71	Feb 13 08:06 UTC
20-Period Midline	69,789.73	Bollinger midline support
Conversion Line	68,468.53	Ichimoku Tenkan-sen
Cloud Top	68,077.28	Ichimoku Senkou A
Base Line	67,373.79	Ichimoku Kijun-sen
Flat Reference	64,232.39	Lagging span / major support

Currency Technical - USD/MXN

USD/MXN continues to trade in a tight range near multi-year lows. The weekly low of 17.14 registered on February 11 marks a key support level, while a break above 17.50 would signal the beginning of a broader peso correction. The DXY's bounce from 4-year lows near 97.60 to 98.76 bears monitoring - a sustained recovery above 99.00 would mechanically pressure the peso through the dollar channel.

The carry-trade dynamic remains the dominant force. With Banxico at 7.00% and the Fed at 3.50–3.75%, the 325-basis-point spread is under structural compression - markets are pricing Banxico to resume cuts in Q2 while the Fed debate has shifted from“how many cuts” to“when to start again.” A convergence of the two policy paths would erode the peso's yield advantage and test the 17.50–18.00 zone.

Looking Ahead

Today's US January CPI release at 8:30 AM ET is the week's defining event. Consensus expects headline CPI at 2.5% year-over-year (down from 2.7% in December) and core CPI at 2.6%. Goldman Sachs sees headline coming in slightly light at 2.4%, which could add to hopes that inflation is moderating. A reading at or below consensus would validate the disinflation narrative, support three Fed rate cuts in 2026, and provide a tailwind for both the peso and Mexican equities via the carry-trade channel.

The USMCA review looms as the medium-term risk. The July 2026 deadline approaches with three major pressure points: China trans-shipment through Mexico (which the tariff reform aims to address), automotive rules of origin (with US negotiators seeking tighter content requirements), and critical minerals and AI technology provisions. Mexico's own tariff reform - imposing duties up to 50% on non-FTA imports - is explicitly designed to strengthen its negotiating position, but it also risks disrupting supply chains and raising consumer prices domestically.

Next week brings Banxico's minutes from the February 5 decision (Thursday, February 19), which will be scrutinized for signals on whether the pause extends through Q1 or if the board is already debating a March resumption of cuts. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday, February 18) will provide parallel color on the Fed's thinking. For the IPC, the BMV's IPO pipeline and Q4 2025 earnings season remain the key micro catalysts - with estimated 15% earnings growth for 2026, the market needs delivery to justify current valuations.

The Verdict

Thursday's 1% pullback is a healthy consolidation in a market that has rallied more than 10% year-to-date and sits near all-time highs. The IPC's price-to-earnings multiple of 16.3x is approaching its 5-year average of 16.6x, which means the index is no longer trading at a discount and needs earnings growth - not just multiple expansion - to sustain higher levels. The 15% earnings growth projected for 2026 supports the case, but the market is no longer cheap.

The peso at 17.23 remains in structurally strong territory, backed by a 325-basis-point carry advantage, Plan México's nearshoring push, and the tariff reform signaling alignment with Washington. But the carry trade is crowded, the USMCA review introduces binary risk, and the China-Mexico tariff talks suggest a complex three-way trade dynamic that could disrupt the status quo. The OECD's 0.6% GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2026 is a sobering counterpoint to the equity market's optimism.

Today's CPI print is the swing factor. A benign reading would validate the bull case - cheaper US rates, stronger carry, continued flows into Mexican assets. A hot print would expose the positioning concentration and test whether the 17.50 level on USD/MXN holds. Technically, the 4-hour MACD deceleration and RSI retreat from overbought territory suggest the IPC may consolidate in the 69,789–70,904 range before its next directional move. The base case remains constructive: Mexico's structural story - nearshoring, demographic dividend, deepening capital markets - is the strongest in Latin America. The question is price, not direction.

Report compiled by The Rio Times. Data sources: BMV, Investing, Milenio, Banco de México, Bloomberg Línea, Expansión, CNBC, EIA, TradingView. Charts: TradingView (BMV:ME). Published February 13, 2026

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