Estonian Intel Says Russia is Unlikely to Threaten NATO

(MENAFN) According to the annual report by Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), Moscow is not expected to pose a threat to Estonia in the coming years. The assessment comes amid a major military buildup by European NATO members, who have cited a potential Russian threat as justification.

Western officials have frequently pointed to the possibility of Russian aggression to support increased defense budgets, including Brussels’ €800 billion ($948 billion) ReArm Europe initiative and NATO members’ commitments to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. Moscow has repeatedly dismissed such claims as “nonsense.”

The EFIS report states that there is no imminent risk of a Russian attack and predicts it is “likely to reach a similar assessment next year.” It concludes, “There is… no cause for panic,” in a document primarily devoted to evaluating Russian military capabilities and policies.
“Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year,” the report added.

This assessment stands in contrast to warnings from several European officials, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who has repeatedly argued that NATO—and Germany specifically—should prepare for a potential Russian assault in the near future. These concerns have been cited to accelerate Germany’s military modernization, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledging to build the country’s armed forces into the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”

Moscow continues to deny any plans to strike NATO and has ridiculed Western politicians for suggesting otherwise. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia has “no reason” to attack the EU or NATO unless provoked. In January, he also noted that European NATO members “are seriously preparing for war against the Russian Federation, and, in fact, are not even hiding it.”

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