Trial Balloon: Japan PM Takaichi Contemplates Feb. Snap Election

As such, for now it may be better to read the Yomiuri scoop as more of a trial balloon, an attempt to cajole Tamaki into cooperating, than a serious threat to dissolve the House of Representatives. In the meantime, the yen fell after the Yomiuri story broke, presumably on expectations that an early election would bolster Takaichi's fiscal dovishness.

At a meeting of government and ruling party officials on January 9, Takaichi announced that her government would convene its proposed multi-party National Conference on Social Security Reform before the end of the month.

However, while Takaichi has ambitions that the conference can help forge a broad consensus on the social safety net and its funding – including questions regarding the consumption tax – not every party shares her vision.

The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), for example, has said that it will participate but, as CDP policy chief Satoshi Honjo said Friday, the party wants the conference to focus narrowly on proposals to introduce a refundable tax credit system. Other parties may be preparing to use the conference as an opportunity to press for consumption tax cuts and other proposals.

Instead of a broad discussion on how to balance social security spending and funding, the conference could turn into an opportunity for grandstanding (particularly if all participants are bracing for a snap election within weeks).

The Cabinet Office released the results of its latest survey of public attitudes toward the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and defense issues on Friday, January 9. The survey, available here, shows that Japan's progress toward becoming a“normal nation” in defense affairs continues apace.

Public interest in the SDF climbed to 82.6%, an all-time high. While the public still appreciates the SDF first and foremost for its role in disaster relief, there is growing appreciation for the SDF's role in defending the nation: the share of respondents who say they appreciate the SDF for its role in preserving Japan's peace and independence rose from 28.9% in 2022 to 35.1%.

Of the respondents, 93.1% said that they have a good impression, including 41.6% who said that they definitely have a good impression, up from 32.3% in 2022

Meanwhile, the public's support for strengthening Japan's armed forces is growing too. There are now nearly as many respondents (45.2%) who think the SDF should be strengthened as respondents (49.8%) who think the SDF should be maintained at current levels. Those figures were 41.5% and 53% in 2022. Only 2.2% said they should be reduced.

Interestingly, while support for the SDF is robust, the survey found that the public is slightly less worried about threats to Japan. 80.6% of respondents said that Japan faces a risk of being attacked or drawn into a war – 32.6% who said definitely and 48% somewhat – down from 86.2% in 2022, with virtually all of the decline coming from those who think Japan definitely faces this risk.

Also interesting is that among those who said that they think Japan does not face this risk, the most common reason for believing this is the existence of the US-Japan security alliance and the share of respondents citing the alliance rose from 56.6% in 2022 to 65.2% in 2025.1

Other findings of interest:

• Support for the 2015 security laws rose from 63.8% to 73.4%;
• When asked which partners (other than the US) would be most useful for Japan, South Korea went from second with 51.4% in 2022 to first with 57.1%, leapfrogging Southeast Asia.
• Those who approve of arms exports in accordance with rules like the“three principles on arms equipment transfers” amounted to 68.3% of respondents. (There is no data on support for relaxing arms export rules.)

Both Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama will travel to the US this coming week for lengthy visits.

Koizumi announced Friday that he will be in the US for talks with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth from January 12-18, focusing on Japan's impending national security policy review and the regional security environment.

Katayama, meanwhile, will be in the US from January 11-14 to attend a meeting of finance ministers hosted by the US Treasury Department to discuss supply chain security for rare earths and other critical minerals.

After remarks earlier in the week about the desirability of being a governing party again, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito clarified that he meant in the future, saying that“returning to the current LDP-led government would be meaningless.”

Ishin no Kai is being lambasted as a“party of delinquents” (chinpara).

The tone was muted at an LDP discussion of the situation of Venezuela Friday, though lawmakers still said they wanted the Japanese government to clarify its position.

As this session suggests, Japan is taking the“Donroe doctrine” and its implications for Asia seriously.

Prime Minister Takaichi confirmed that she will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Nara January 13-14. The summit could include discussion of Korean membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.