Kazakhstan's Economic Growth Hinges On Oil And Investment EDB
Speaking during the presentation of the bank's macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028 in Almaty, Kuznetsov noted that Kazakhstan's economy is expected to grow by around 6% by the end of 2025.
A substantial uplift is anticipated from government-led initiatives, with Baiterek Holding planning to augment state support to 8 trillion tenge (approximately $15 billion). Concurrently, the Tengiz oil field is nearing its full production capacity, a development expected to contribute an additional 0.3–0.4 percentage points to the country's overall economic growth. Projections for 2026 indicate a further 3.3% increase in oil output, solidifying the sector's pivotal role as a principal driver of growth.
The bank forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 5.5% in 2026, fueled by robust investment activity, the launch of over 100 projects across various industrial and agro-industrial sectors, and the ongoing execution of the National Infrastructure Plan, which is slated to extend through 2029.
According to EDB estimates, inflation in Kazakhstan is expected to decelerate to 9.7% year-on-year by the conclusion of 2026, reflecting the anticipated stabilization of macroeconomic conditions.
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