Rooftop Solar Could Meet Substantial Part Of GCC Energy Needs: Report

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times)

Widespread deployment of rooftop solar arrays across cities in the GCC could hold the key to nations achieving their ambitious carbon neutrality targets and present a compelling commercial opportunity for landlords and investors, a report showed on Monday.

According to a research paper by global real estate consultancy Knight Frank in collaboration with the University of Leeds and University of Bristol, the region is potentially on the brink of a second renewable energy revolution, shifting focus from large desert-based solar parks to distributed urban installations.

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In the study, Going Green: Rooftop Solar Potential in the GCC, Knight Frank used advanced geospatial modelling to provide the first comprehensive inventory of rooftop solar potential in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

Knight Frank's geospatial audit of Abu Dhabi identified 42.8 square kilometres of usable rooftop space – an area equivalent to more than 6,000 football pitches. Utilising this space would effectively create a distributed solar power plant equivalent to 55.5% of the land area occupied by the Mohammed Bin Rashid Solar Park, but would in theory be located directly at the source of consumption.

Knight Frank's research also indicates that large-scale rooftop installations are closing the price gap with desert-based solar farms, which have made headlines for delivering some of the lowest energy tariffs in the world. In Abu Dhabi, for instance, rooftop systems larger than 10,000 sqm can deliver a LCOE as low as 8 fils/kWh. This figure is only marginally higher than the tariffs of around 6 fils/kWh achieved by gigawatt-scale solar parks in the desert, but without the associated land costs.

The UAE has committed to becoming a global clean energy leader, targeting 50% of electricity generation from clean sources by 2050 and a 70% reduction in carbon emissions as part of the UAE Energy Strategy 2050. Major progress to date has come from utility-scale solar projects, such the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, with rooftop solar contributing less than 1% of installed solar power capacity.

Faisal Durrani, Partner, Head of Research, MENA, said:“With the built environment responsible for 39% of global carbon emissions, according to the World Green Building Council, and rapid real estate expansion projected across the Gulf through 2040, our whitepaper highlights an opportunity for developers, investors and governments to monetise vast tracts of unused urban roof space. The findings demonstrate that distributed rooftop solar is no longer a peripheral technology but is capable of becoming a central element of regional energy planning – delivering long-term energy cost stability, grid resilience and investment-grade carbon reduction.”

In Saudi Arabia, where the government has set a target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2060 and a 50% renewable energy mix by 2030, the Kingdom's solar infrastructure has expanded significantly over the past five years, supported by government tenders and increasing private sector participation.

Across the kingdom, utility-scale projects such as Sakaka (300 MW), Sudair (1,500 MW) and Al Shuaibah (2,600 MW) have established benchmarks for cost-competitive solar power that are among the lowest in the world, with a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of 6-9 halalas/kWh.

The research team assessed approximately 870,000 buildings across Riyadh, identifying a total of 158.2 square kilometres of technically usable rooftop area. While half of Riyadh's buildings have small rooftops offering limited capacity, large buildings with more than 1,000 sqm of usable space account for 26% of the city's total roof area.

The report concludes that if all large rooftops (>1,000 sqm) in Riyadh were fully utilised using single-axis solar tracking systems, the city could generate 17,500 GWh of electricity annually. This equates to 40.7% of Riyadh's total annual electricity consumption, based on 2023 usage data.

Wesley Thomson, ‏Partner, Head of ESG, MENA, said:“Although distributed solar remains a nascent market, commercial and industrial installations have begun to emerge in industrial zones, logistics parks and new developments in Riyadh, Dammam and Jeddah, reflecting growing interest in energy diversification and cost efficiency, as well as rising demand from commercial occupiers for“green” assets”.

Scale is key

A consistent finding across both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is the critical importance of scale.

In Abu Dhabi, smaller residential systems ( less than100 sqm) produced energy at around 30 fils/kWh. However, when deployed on rooftops greater than 1,100 sqm, this cost fell by nearly 60% to around 13 fils/kWh. The largest industrial roofs pushed this down further to 8 fils/kWh.

Similarly, in Riyadh, moving from a small residential set-up to a large commercial installation reduced the payback period by several years. This“size-to-value” correlation sends a strong signal to owners of warehouses, malls, industrial parks and government buildings that their roofs have the potential to become a revenue-generating assets.

While the region's gigawatt solar parks continue to lead the world in terms of efficiency and output, distributed urban solar generation offers its own unique benefits that can be harnessed to achieve net zero targets. Generating power where it is consumed reduces the strain on transmission networks and eases peak load pressures, improving grid resilience. It also requires no new land allocation, which is a major cost in traditional solar farms. And, with the built environment contributing significantly to global emissions, on-site generation is the most direct method for landlords to reduce the carbon intensity of their portfolios.

Dr. Christopher Payne, Partner, Strategy, Economics and Geospatial, MENA, said:“Our analysis suggests that the GCC is transitioning from a phase of utility-scale success to distributed opportunity. Projects such as Noor Abu Dhabi, Sakaka and Sudair have proved the viability of solar in the desert, but the cities present a huge opportunity for the next phase of decarbonisation.

“As the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue their rapid urban expansion to accommodate growing populations, the energy demands of their cities will only increase. The solution to meeting this demand lies, in part, directly overhead. By enabling rooftop solar at scale, GCC nations can create a new class of sustainable infrastructure assets that attract international institutional investment, support corporate environmental and sustainability goals, and secure a low-carbon future for the region.”

Thomson‏ added:“We are seeing a clear pathway where distributed solar becomes a central pillar of the Kingdom's energy strategy. This is not theoretical; the economics are compelling today. Using data from the Kingdom's Shamsi Solar Calculator, we estimate that rooftop photovoltaic systems in Riyadh now offer a payback period of just 7-11 years. Industrial and logistics assets are particularly well suited for this transition, with larger commercial installations achieving payback in as little as seven years due to economies of scale.”

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