Kazakhstan Keeps Key Rate At 18%, Signals No Cuts Before Mid-2026
The decision, which includes a ±1 percentage point corridor, was based on updated macroeconomic forecasts and the current balance of inflation risks, the NBK said.
The bank noted that strong domestic demand, rising imports and falling real incomes underscore the need for closer coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. To address these pressures, the government, the bank and the financial regulator are implementing a joint 2026–2028 macroeconomic stabilisation programme aimed at narrowing supply-demand imbalances, improving budget efficiency and supporting real income growth through lower, more stable inflation.
The NBK said its current moderately tight stance, together with planned measures to cool consumer lending, should help anchor a sustainable disinflation path. Policymakers will continue monitoring the pace of price deceleration, domestic demand trends and the effectiveness of joint actions under the programme.
The bank said it does not expect any room for rate cuts before the end of the first half of 2026, citing high inflation expectations, core inflation dynamics and the delayed impact of planned tariff and tax reforms. It added that further tightening remains possible if there are no convincing signs of a steady slowdown in inflation.
The next rate decision is scheduled for January 23, 2026.
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