Bihar offers a fascinating case for studying how voters decide whom to support. With a long history of caste-based politics, shifting religious coalitions and development challenges, Bihar's politics is complex. This article draws on a fresh research study by the International Journal of Political Science and Governance to explain how caste, religion and development shape voter behaviour in Bihar and how the three increasingly interact.

The enduring role of caste

Caste has been central to electoral politics in Bihar for decades. Regional parties capitalised on the Mandal Commission and backward-caste mobilisation in the 1990s and upper castes saw their dominance challenged. Voters often choose candidates from their own caste or community because they believe such candidates will protect their interests. One recent analysis found that voters consider caste a strong predictor of vote choice, especially in rural areas.

However, it is not always as simple as 'vote your caste'. Caste does remain a foundation, but it now interacts with other factors. Voters of today, especially in the urban areas, evaluate whether a candidate from their caste can deliver on welfare, development or representation.

Religion's complex influence

Religion also plays a meaningful but layered role in Bihar's electoral politics. The Muslim community, which makes up around 16% of Bihar's population, has often voted for parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), regional parties or the Indian National Congress, especially in response to perceived threats or majoritarian policies.

Yet a key insight is that religious identity does not act alone. Even within religious groups there are caste divisions, social class differences and regional dynamics. For example, different Muslim sub-communities may have different priorities such as jobs, social dignity or welfare rather than purely communal concerns. Thus religion remains relevant, but it is modulated through caste, class and local context.

The rising importance of development and governance

In recent years, another dimension of voting behaviour has gained strength: performance or development-oriented voting. Many voters, especially younger ones, in urban areas or exposed to media, now care more about good governance, jobs, infrastructure, education and healthcare than just identity.

In Bihar, the leadership of Nitish Kumar emphasised infrastructure, law and order, education and women's empowerment. These initiatives helped spread the idea that voting is also about what governments deliver. Thus, development narratives are helping shape decisions across caste and religious lines.

How identity and development interact

A key takeaway of the study is that identity (caste or religion) and development concerns do not exist in separate silos. They interact. For example, a voter may prefer a candidate of their caste but only if that candidate also seems capable of delivering development. Or a voter may move beyond identity because they perceive that governance and performance are more important.

The study uses mixed methods (surveys and interviews of 2,000 voters) and statistical tools like logistic regression to validate this. It finds that identity remains powerful but is increasingly filtered through perceptions of governance. For example, younger voters may ask: "Will candidate X from my caste deliver roads, jobs or schools?" If the answer is no, the caste identity alone may lose ground.

Youth, urban voters and media exposure: The new wave

Particularly among young people, urban voters and those exposed to media, there is a clear tilt toward development and less rigid identity-based voting. These voters measure candidates on issues such as employment, education and infrastructure. The study suggests that as Bihar's society changes (better education, more media exposure, migration), these groups may become more decisive.

Despite the shift, identity factors retain their relevance for several reasons:

• Social networks and local brokers still have influence in many rural areas.
• Caste-based welfare schemes, reservation policies and caste census discussions remain politically charged.
• Identity offers a simple heuristic for voters: A candidate 'like me' may be trusted more.
• In many local contests, identity remains a strong anchoring point while development is aspirational.

Structural and contextual factors that limit change

Change in voting behaviour is not uniform. In remote rural areas, with high poverty, lower education and limited media exposure, identity factors still dominate. Patronage networks, kinship ties, local power brokers and caste hierarchies remain strong. The study notes that in such areas short-term benefits, social ties or candidate identity may override long-term development concerns.

What this means for parties and candidates

Political parties in Bihar increasingly recognise this dual nature of voting behaviour. They craft strategies that combine identity mobilisation (through caste/community outreach) with messaging around development, governance and youth aspirations. For example, candidate lists are selected to reflect caste alliances, but campaign materials emphasise infrastructure, jobs and performance.

For candidates, this means they must now balance two demands: representing identity and demonstrating capacity to deliver. A failure on either front can cost votes. Voters seem to increasingly demand both.

Implications for Bihar's democracy

The evolving dynamic in Bihar speaks to deeper changes in Indian democracy. Voters are not passive, they are weighing identity, performance and future aspirations. The coexistence of old identity structures with new development concerns signals a transitional phase. Democracy in Bihar thus involves both continuity and change.

For policymakers, this means that addressing structural inequalities (caste, social justice) remains paramount. At the same time, focusing on governance, infrastructure, education, jobs and transparent accountability is also critical. For researchers, Bihar offers a model for studying how identity and development intertwine in a democracy.

In Bihar, the electoral behaviour cannot be reduced to only caste or only development. It is better described as a hybrid model: identity matters, but so do performance and governance. Voters increasingly ask if a candidate of their caste or religion will deliver practical benefits. For parties, winning means crafting messages that speak both to community and to capability.

As the younger, more educated and media-connected voters grow in number, the development narrative may gain further traction. But identity structures will not vanish overnight, they will remain part of the fabric of electoral politics. The challenge for Bihar's democratic future is to ensure that development, governance and identity combine to deepen participation, not fragment it. In this way Bihar's electoral behaviour offers valuable lessons: voting is about more than who you are, it is also about what you expect.

Bihar Elections 2025 enter crucial phase with the end of campaigning

As the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections draws to a close, the findings of the study appear to mirror real campaign trends on the ground. Campaigning for the first phase ended on Tuesday evening, covering 121 constituencies across 18 districts, with voting scheduled for November 6.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah led the BJP-JD(U)-NDA campaign, urging voters to support the alliance for 'development and stability'. PM Modi told party workers that the NDA was poised for a 'record victory', while Amit Shah warned against the return of 'jungle raj' under the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

On the opposition front, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav promised higher prices for farmers' crops and free electricity for irrigation, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi criticised the Agnipath scheme and vowed to create world-class educational institutions in Bihar if elected.

Meanwhile, Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor presented his party as a 'new option' and campaigned across several constituencies, promising a change in governance. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar also addressed multiple rallies, appealing for another term under the NDA banner.

As campaigning closes, the competition between old loyalties and new aspirations, between caste identity, development promises, and generational change, now moves from rallies to the ballot box.

(With inputs from agencies)

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