Poland Border Closure Choking China-EU Rail Trade

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He adds that NATO's military build-up in Eastern Europe is meant to deter Russia and reassure its eastern members; at the same time, the US may exploit the situation to strengthen its leadership and gain strategic benefits.

“Poland's closure of the border crossings has stranded China-Europe Railway Express trains,” a columnist called Xiangjiangnan says in an article published by Dot Dot News, an online media controlled by the state‐owned Hong Kong Ta Kung Wen Wei Media Group.

“The EU-China Chamber of Commerce, representing more than 1,600 companies, has warned of supply‐chain disruption risks that will push up inflation in major EU economies,” he writes.“If this drags on, Polish and EU firms will go bankrupt, one after another.”

“As an EU member, Poland is acting for 'its own self‐interest' and making other EU countries bear the losses. Can Warsaw withstand the pressure from EU member states?” he asks.

Rail trade pillar

The China-Europe Railway Express has become a pillar of EU-China commerce. The line runs through Belarus into Poland and carries about 90% of all China–EU rail freight. In 2024, cargo volumes on the route grew 10.6% year-on-year, while the value of goods surged 85% to about 25.07 billion euros (US$27 billion).

The rail bridge now accounts for roughly 3.7% of all EU-China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier. The increase was driven by high-turnover cross-border e-commerce and higher-value industrial consignments.

For Chinese e-commerce giants such as Temu and Shein, the rail leg has been a lifeline to compress delivery times without paying air‐freight premiums. This land route has also become increasingly essential as China seeks to boost trade with the EU and diversify from the US amid the Sino-US trade war.

Public data showed that about 60% of loads comprise electronics, machinery, lithium batteries and electric vehicles, precisely the categories where delivery predictability and cash‐cycle velocity matter most.

“If the border is to be fully open, there must be peace on both sides,” an aide to Sikorski told reporters.

On Thursday (September 18), Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said Poland would reopen the crossings only when conditions are safe. He added that Polish border guard forces recorded increased attempts by Belarusian and Russian drones to enter Polish airspace, underscoring that the border remains highly tense.

“The China‐Europe Railway Express is a flagship project of China–Poland and China–EU cooperation. The project benefits both sides,” China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on September 11.“We hope Poland will take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of the Express and the stability of international industrial and supply chains.”

A Hebei-based columnist says Chinese freight forwarders have suffered the most from the closure as Baltic carriers tripled 40-foot high-cube container rates to about $9,500, above peak levels seen during the Covid pandemic.

“Looking at the whole chain, the most innocent party is the China–Europe Railway Express,” he says.“It was built to transport goods, yet it has been dragged into geopolitical conflicts. Both Chinese exporters and European importers are hurt.”

Many shippers are rebooking to ocean routes on Asia–Europe loops. This can lower unit costs, but transit times roughly double, straining just-in-time delivery requirements, launch schedules and seasonal sales.