SEBI Rule Change Fuels Gains In Bajaj Finance SEBI Analysts See 15% Upside Potential Ahead

Bajaj Finance and its subsidiary Bajaj Housing Finance shares gained over 1% on Monday, following the market regulator's decision late Friday to relax minimum public shareholding rules for large companies. 

On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) concluded its board meeting and among one of its key decisions was the announcement that companies with a market capitalization from ₹50,000 crore to ₹1 lakh crore now have five years from their listing date to achieve the minimum public shareholding requirement of 25%. This is an extension from the previous timeline of three years. 

The move gives firms like Bajaj Housing Finance more flexibility to meet ownership requirements without rushing into big stake sales, which the regulator said had been a challenge for issuers with very large market capitalisations.

Remember, Bajaj Housing Finance listed last year in September and its promoter Bajaj Finance owns 88.7% stake in the company currently. 

Strong Momentum On The Charts

SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal said Bajaj Finance continues to trade in a bullish uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts. He noted that the daily breakout above consolidation, backed by healthy volumes, shows momentum is intact. 

According to him, the stock's relative strength index (RSI) remains positive and the 20- and 50-day moving averages are acting as firm support levels. Pal said the stock could move toward ₹1,040–₹1,050 if the breakout sustains, while support around ₹950–₹970 would cushion volatility.

Short And Long-Term Views

Pal added that in the short term, dips toward support can provide entry opportunities, with the stock positioned to reach ₹1,040–₹1,060 over the next few weeks. 

Over a longer horizon of 3–12 months, he said Bajaj Finance looks structurally strong, supported by loan book growth, stable profitability and easing borrowing costs, with scope for the stock to move beyond ₹1,100.

Company Developments Under Watch

Pal also highlighted recent developments, including Bajaj Finance's target to grow its loan book to ₹10 lakh crore by FY29, leadership succession planning after senior exits, a ₹1,350 crore fundraise through non-convertible debentures, adjustments to deposit rates, and analyst forecasts pointing to further upside.

Further Breakout Potential

SEBI-registered analyst Aditya Thukral said the stock recently broke out of a four-month cup pattern at fresh all-time highs, after earlier breaking out of a larger flag pattern in February. 

He noted both moves came with rising volumes, suggesting institutional participation. Thukral said the stock is trading comfortably above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, with past resistances turning into supports.

He added that although the RSI is near 77 on daily charts, a mild correction could offer a good entry opportunity. 

Thukral suggested that long positions can be considered in the ₹980–₹990 range, with stop losses set below ₹900. Targets of ₹1,170–₹1,180 could be achieved within the next 8–10 weeks.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'extremely bullish' amid 'high' message volume.

Bajaj Finance's stock has risen 46.5% so far in 2025.

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