CEPR Study Finds Tariffs Have No Effect On US Manufacturing Employment

(MENAFN- Robotics & Automation News) Authoritative economic thinktank report finds tariffs have 'no effect' on US manufacturing employment

August 29, 2025 by Mai Tao

A new report published on the VoxEU website, part of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), argues that US President Trump's so-called“reciprocal” tariffs have failed to deliver on one of their most politically sensitive promises: bringing manufacturing jobs back to America.

The column, titled“The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment”, reviews data on US trade policy and employment and concludes that tariffs have little to no positive impact on overall manufacturing employment.

According to the analysis, while tariffs can create short-term boosts in certain protected industries, these are quickly offset by broader economic forces, including:

• Retaliatory tariffs from other countries that reduce US exports.
• Higher input costs for domestic manufacturers that rely on imported components.
• Shifts in consumer spending caused by rising prices.

The report stresses that the long-run decline of US manufacturing employment is not primarily due to trade competition, but rather to productivity improvements, automation, and structural changes in the economy.

Even in sectors outside computing, where imports from China and other countries were significant, the research suggests trade accounted for only a small share of job losses.

CEPR notes that tariffs remain a politically attractive tool because they are visible and can appear to provide quick relief for certain industries. But the evidence indicates that any gains are temporary and often outweighed by job losses elsewhere.

The findings arrive as US policymakers debate the future of tariffs and industrial strategy, with some arguing that more aggressive protectionism is necessary to counter Chinese manufacturing power. The CEPR analysis suggests, however, that tariffs alone cannot reverse decades-long employment trends in US manufacturing.

The full report,“The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment”, is available on the CEPR's VoxEU website at cepr.

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