Kazakhstan Keeps Policy Rate Steady In Face Of Inflationary Pressures

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) ASTANA, Kazakhstan, August 29. The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, following the August meeting, decided to keep the key interest rate at 16.5 percent per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, Trend reports via the National Bank of Kazakhstan.

The decision is based on the results of the latest forecast round and the assessment of the balance of inflation risks. Despite a slowdown in monthly inflation to 0.7 percent in July, it remains above average annual values. Annual inflation remained at 11.8 percent, with an increased contribution from the food sector, while inflation in the services sector began to slow down for the first time this year.

According to the National Bank, inflationary pressure persists amid:

Ongoing tariff reforms;

Fiscal stimulus;

High consumer demand;

Active retail lending.

Additional pressure is also created by external factors: rising global food prices, high inflation in partner countries, and continued tightness in global monetary conditions.

The inflation forecast for 2025 has been updated - it is now expected to be in the range of 11 -12.5 percent, for 2026 - 9.5 - 11.5 percent, and for 2027 - 5.5 - 7.5 percent. Risks include increased domestic demand, growth in regulated prices, and unanchored inflation expectations, which rose to 14.2 percent in July.

Against the backdrop of high investment activity and steady demand, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 5.5 - 6.5 percent, while for 2026 it remains within 4–5 percent.

From September, new conditions for minimum reserve requirements will be introduced to strengthen the disinflationary effect of monetary policy. Cooling of retail lending is also planned through the introduction of micro- and macroprudential tools.

With inflation remaining high in the coming months, the National Bank does not rule out the possibility of tightening monetary conditions, including raising the key rate at upcoming meetings.

The next decision on the key rate will be announced on October 10, 2025, at 12:00 local time.

MENAFN29082025000187011040ID1109992507