Trump-Putin Summit To Produce More Dread Than Hope

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He has spoken rather unspecifically of being“disappointed” at Putin, while saying quite softly that he is considering tougher economic sanctions on Russia while, strangely, imposing tariffs on American imports from some buyers of Russian oil, but not all, in the hope of hurting Russian revenues.

India is wondering why it has been singled out for such punitive tariffs, leaving Turkey, China and other Russian customers untouched.

Last month, Trump reversed course on a decision by his defense department to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons, but only on condition that European governments should pay for them. Moreover, the quantities of weapons so far involved do not represent a major threat to Russia.

Some optimistic commentators have labeled Trump's change on this issue as a“pivot” to Ukraine's side, but while the change was certainly welcome, it would be premature to see it as decisive.

Ukrainians' and Europeans' greatest fear will be that in his desperation to come out of a summit looking like a peacemaker, Trump will be the one who makes concessions to Putin, not the other way around, and that Zelensky will find himself trapped in a position of having to oppose what he and the Ukrainian public see as an unacceptable peace.

European leaders now need to work hard to reduce that danger. One way to do that would be immediately to announce further supplies of long-range missiles and other weapons systems to Ukraine, showing that the Europeans are determined that the Ukrainians will continue to be able to fight back and to hurt Russia badly for however long the war goes on.

Another way would be to use the days before the summit to communicate clearly to Trump and his staff what Ukraine's, and hence also the Europeans', priorities will be in any negotiation.

European diplomats could also mutter, unofficially of course, that if America sells Ukraine out, then it can go whistle for the US$600 billion of energy, defense purchases and investments that Trump has claimed the EU has agreed to make in America.

Trump's claim was largely imaginary in any case, but it clearly mattered a lot to him, so threatening to make it clear that such investments and purchases will now never happen might make him cautious.

The main reason why the EU chose not to retaliate against Trump's tariffs and to go along with his claim about investments is that it couldn't afford to risk losing American support for Ukraine. If that motive disappears, the gloves can come off.

Territory should be the easiest issue to set clear rules for in any peace negotiation. Ukraine has already made it clear that it can accept a ceasefire that freezes the lands already occupied by the Russians, even if it will be unwilling to sign any permanent treaty ceding those territories to Russia.

But neither Europeans nor Ukrainians would accept Russian occupation of any lands the Russians do not currently hold. Immediately after Trump started talking airily of“swapping of territories”, Zelensky stated unequivocally that Ukrainians are“not willing to gift their land to the occupier.”

Second, the Europeans can make it clear that there is zero chance that a country that has been invaded and has seen hundreds of thousands of its citizens killed is going to accept any form of“demilitarization”, which would simply leave it vulnerable to a new invasion.

The“reassurance force” of troops and aircraft to be assembled by France, Britain and other members of the 30-country“coalition of the willing” must be allowed to enter Ukraine and help to enforce the ceasefire. Otherwise, no ceasefire agreement can be expected to last for more than a few months.

Putin's demands that Ukraine should be barred from joining NATO are the easiest to agree to: there is no chance of it joining anyway for as long as Trump is in the White House, and no promise made now can bind Trump's successors. But there is no reason why this should also exclude the presence in Ukraine of the foreign“reassurance force.”

A third issue that Europeans should encourage Trump to highlight at the summit is Russia's abduction during the war of an estimated 35,000 Ukrainian children.

Russia has held these children to undermine morale in Ukraine. By highlighting the issue in a high-profile international setting, Trump would have a chance of embarrassing Putin, even though the ex-KGB agent is not easily embarrassed.