America Asks Its Allies The Tough Questions

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Tokyo has almost no security relationship with Taiwan.

On the plus side, Japan's considerable support to the Philippines – radars, patrol boats, six retired destroyers and dual use infrastructure – is done with an eye toward a Taiwan fight. And one Japanese official explained that the long-range missiles (current and more advanced versions) that Japan has based on its southernmost island can reach quite a ways towards Taiwan and potentially beyond.

But it still appears Japan expects the US to handle things if Taiwan goes“hot” while Japan does what it feels like.

Washington is wise to get this ironed out beforehand.

Australia?

Will Australia play a role, let alone fight, if there is a conflict over Taiwan? Don't be so sure.

The Australian military is game, but undersized and lacking capabilities and direction. And a powerful constituency in Australia is both anti-military and anti-American.

Prime Minister Albanese is in Beijing this week and is cozying up to China more than ever. The PRC banned exports of Australian lobster and wine a few years ago, and the possibility Beijing will do it again appears to have rattled Canberra.

The Australian Broadcast Corporation (ABC) said :“It's entirely appropriate that Anthony Albanese is meeting Xi again before he meets Trump for the first time. Xi is more important than Trump now.”

Washington may be overestimating Australian support. Today's Australia seems different from the one that stopped the Imperial Japanese Army in New Guinea in 1942.

Best to clear it up sooner than later.

More money

The Americans – as they've done for years – are also asking Japan and Australia to spend more on defense.

But even upping the budget doesn't mean more capability and a willingness to use it – which is what the Pentagon is really asking for.

US requests need to include some well-thought-out advice on what to spend money on so as to be a more useful partner. Otherwise it's just nagging.

As an exasperated Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka relayed to the Americans over 50 years ago:“Tell us what you need ... and don't back down.”

Getting heard

These hard questions are asked at the defense secretary / minister level. But that's not where they are decided.

Washington would do well to quietly summon the Japanese and Australian ambassadors, one at a time, to the White House and explain things with President Trump in the room.