Iran Is Not Syria

The Iranian military has a dual architecture designed to resist coups and invasions: Artesh, the regular armed forces of around 420,000 men across ground, naval, air, and air-defense troops, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite, ideologically driven military with roughly 190,000 personnel across ground, naval, and air branches. Beyond them is the Basij, a vast paramilitary network with hundreds of thousands of members embedded in every corner of Iranian society-in the streets, in neighbourhoods, in schools, and mosques. They aren't just loyalists of the Ayatollah but woven into a deeper idea of the state and committed to the core ideology of the Islamic Republic.

Despite Israel's extensive and largely successful campaign of assassinations targeting senior IRGC commanders, the core of the group has not been hollowed out but rather hardened. A younger generation of more ideologically rigid commanders has emerged-battle-hardened through close-quarters combat in Syria and well-versed in how wars of state collapse unfold. While bombing and air campaigns could significantly damage Iran's military and civilian infrastructure, replacing the Islamic Republic would require President Trump to confront not just a standing army, but a deeply entrenched system with decades of experience in asymmetric warfare.

Not Dependent on Individual Leader

Iran is not governed by a single man or clique that can simply be removed. It is a competitive authoritarian system with institutions that have evolved over the course of a century. Even in times of crisis, the system is capable of generating new leaders, factions, and centers of power. The deaths of influential figures would not collapse the system; rather, it would adapt and renew itself.

Iran is not merely a conventional state-it is founded on a revolutionary, theocratic ideology. Its current structure is more than just a government; it is part of an ideological movement rooted in the principles of revolution and resistance. To believe that an external military attack or intervention could dismantle this structure is naive. Historically, when faced with external threats, Iranian citizens have often rallied under nationalist sentiment, which in turn strengthens the system.

Fragmented Opposition

More than 46 years after the Iranian Revolution, there is still talk-both inside the country and among the diaspora-that the regime's end is near. However this prospect will remain extremely difficult unless and until large segments of the military, police, and intelligence forces begin to defect. Interestingly in every protest movement since the 1979 revolution, such defections have not occurred.

Iranians have shown extraordinary courage in a series of uprisings ranging from the 2009 Green Movement, to the 2017–2019 economic protests, to the 2022“Women, Life, Freedom” movement. But none shook the foundations of the Islamic republic.

Iranian opposition groups may receive attention in Western media, but the hard reality is that they have no meaningful presence on the ground inside Iran. Monarchists and the former Mojahedin (now the NCRI) are widely disliked by much of the Iranian diaspora and lack grassroots support. Moreover, there is no unity among opposition groups-nor is there consensus on even the basic principles of democratic governance. The opposition remains fragmented, paralyzed, and ill-prepared to assume power if the regime were to collapse, posing no significant threat to the current system.

Relative Ethnic Harmony

Iran is a multi-ethnic society apart from Persian, other ethnic groups like Kurds, Balochis, and Azeris also exist in significant numbers. But contrary to its neighbours like Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran enjoys relative ethnic harmony. It is worth noting that Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is of Azerbaijani descent. Azerbaijanis, the largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, are a Turkic-speaking people. Khamenei's Azerbaijani heritage has never been a source of controversy, highlighting the relative harmony between Iran's Persian majority and its Azerbaijani population. This illustrates that there are no major ethnic fault lines that can be used to bring down the regime.

Iran is the Middle East's second-largest country by population and a major influence on the Muslim world. Iranian domestic political equations also must be considered before reaching any conclusion about the Iranian threat. In the current political dynamics of Iran still the liberal and moderate elements exist, which want engagement with the rest of the world. If we want a moderate and responsible Iran, we must strengthen and empower these moderate elements in Iran. Any isolation and military action on Iran will only strengthen the hardliners in Tehran. It's a hard reality that Iran–freed of an international coalition arrayed against it and led by Tehran hard-liners empowered by the American sanctions would have no reason not to race to a nuclear bomb and subsequently become a rogue country like- North Korea and then it will be hard for international community to deal with them. The only way to make Iran a responsible state actor is by getting it integrated into the world order and its economy open for everyone so that Iranians always know the cost of their misadventures.

• The author is a columnist and geopolitical analyst for Middle-East and can be reached at [email protected]

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