The US Attack On Iran And The Collapse Of Negotiations

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A US submarine, probably Ohio class, located some 400 miles from Iran, launched 30 TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack) cruise missiles aimed at Natanz and Isfahan. Other targets may also have been involved, but that information has not been disclosed.

A B-2 bomber releasing a GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb.

The US aircraft were not attacked by any Iranian air defenses, suggesting that most of these had previously been neutralized by Israel's Air Force.

An IDF infographic indicating the layout of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, June 13, 2025. China's role

China deployed two surveillance ships, numbers 855 and 815A, apparently to provide early warning to Iran and to try and jam Israeli air attacks. These same ships, it appears, were unsuccessful in detecting the US attack, either because they were jammed or because they never saw the B-2 bombers and other stealth aircraft such as the F-22 or F-35.

Even if the Chinese were able to pass warnings to Iran, Israel had already destroyed most of Iran's air force and other air defenses. Reportedly, China also was shipping supplies into Iran and evacuating Chinese citizens.

One of the Chinese surveillance and radar ships. 'Midnight Hammer'

The US operation, called Midnight Hammer, was coordinated with Israel and managed by CENTCOM. President Trump, speaking a few minutes after 10pm from the White House said that Iran should now make peace, but if it did not, there were plenty of targets in Iran that were far easier than Fordow, Isfahan or Natanz.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaking at an early Sunday morning news conference at the Pentagon, said,“I can only confirm that there are both public and private messages being directly delivered to the Iranians in multiple channels, giving them every opportunity to come to the table. They understand precisely what the American position is, precisely what steps they can take to allow for peace, and we hope they do so.”

Iran-Russia

Reportedly Iran's foreign minister is traveling to Moscow to coordinate with Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin had sought a mediation role between Iran and the United States.

For Putin the main focus is on Ukraine, where Russia is making significant breakthroughs, especially in areas that apparently are outside of the stated territorial goals of Russia's“special military operation.”

Russian support for Iran, if Russia actively challenged the United States, could force a turnaround in how the US views Russia in strategic terms. Putin likely will not want to see any change that would induce the United States to commit airpower to defend Ukraine and, by extension, risk a wider European conflict. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia will take any action that would undermine the“warming trend” with the United States.

Russia's ability to influence Khamenei and the Mullahs, or for that matter Iran's Revolutionary Guards, to make a deal with the United States, is highly limited.

Regime change?

At present any chance for Iran to change course and to consider a diplomatic solution that would definitively end Iran's nuclear program seems unlikely, considering Iran's current power structure. The US insists it is not promoting regime change in Iran, but that policy could very well change if there continues to be no progress in resolving the nuclear issue.

Reportedly President Trump's envoy, Richard Grenell has asked Elon Mus to provide Starlink terminals to“our friends” in Iran, a strong hint that the US is getting ready to support efforts to overthrow the Khamenei regime.