Hardening Lines Signal Ukraine Peace Process Collapse

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Although it was planned far in advance of said developments, Putin's latest meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow arguably took the form of Russia's response considering the two spent a whopping seven hours together in talks.

It was foreseen before their meeting that“Putin & Xi Might Hash Out A Grand Deal That Would Enter Into Force If The Ukraine Talks Collapse”, which appears to have been exactly what happened and could have provoked Trump's latest post.

The US already knows that Russia is against an unconditional 30-day ceasefire because it rightly fears, per the precedent of prior ceasefires during the Minsk Accords era, that this could be exploited to give Ukraine time to rotate its troops and rearm ahead of reinitiating hostilities.

It's also important for Russia to obtain full control over the entirety of the disputed regions as part of a peace deal in order to fully incorporate and“denazify” those territories that it now considers to be its own.

Vance's comments make it clear that the US considers this to be“asking too much” and therefore won't coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from them, thus suggesting that Trump's subsequent call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire is meant to indefinitely freeze the Line of Contact against Russia's wishes.

Threatening strictly enforced secondary sanctions for lack of compliance, presumably against those who purchase Russia's oil is meant to simultaneously pressure Putin and his country's top oil clients, including China.

Trump's disclosure that he discussed joint efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict in his latest call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his recent remark about how“I think it's a natural thing to ask” China to assist with this suggest that he envisages Erdogan and Xi pressuring Putin.