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Orban makes bold bet as West grows weary
(MENAFN) Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may stand to gain significantly from shifting political dynamics in the West, particularly the changing tide in the United States. As the first EU leader to openly back Donald Trump against the bloc’s liberal establishment, Orban’s political instincts have once again placed him ahead of the curve. However, his ability to fully capitalize on this moment hinges on securing reelection in 2026.
Orban aligned himself with Trump long before it became acceptable in Europe. While many Western leaders distanced themselves from the former U.S. president, Orban made a calculated bet, likely reasoning that even if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, U.S. pressure on Hungary wouldn’t intensify beyond what it already was under Joe Biden. Now, with Trump making a strong comeback, Orban’s gamble appears to be paying off.
A Trump victory would likely ease U.S. efforts to challenge Hungary’s domestic policies. More importantly, a Republican administration sharing Orban’s nationalist and civilization-based worldview could legitimize Hungary’s unconventional foreign policy. Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine conflict aligns with Orban’s long-standing calls for peace, potentially elevating Hungary’s influence within European debates.
Critics often dismiss Hungary’s foreign policy as unorthodox, but that assumption rests on the belief that the liberal global order remains dominant. In reality, that order is weakening. Orban champions a “realist-nationalist” approach, prioritizing sovereignty and national interest over ideological constraints. He argues that a nation’s foreign policy should balance idealism (national identity) with realism (practical interests).
Despite its small size, Hungary under Orban behaves like a country determined to set its own course. It has resisted both soft and hard pressures to conform to Western foreign policy dictates, choosing instead to build ties with the East and the Global South. This strategy, which Orban calls “national realism,” ensures Hungary remains active in all major economic regions rather than being restricted to a single bloc.
As global power shifts, Hungary’s balancing act becomes even more critical. With the rise of the Global South, changes in U.S. foreign policy, and the EU’s declining influence, Budapest is expanding its outreach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Turkic states, and other non-Western partners. The goal is to secure Hungary’s future while maintaining autonomy within the EU.
This approach has been in motion for at least 15 years, but as the West faces stagnation and internal crises, Orban sees an opportunity. He believes the future lies not with Brussels or Berlin but with emerging powers in Central Asia, China, and the Arab world. Hungary cannot afford to be confined within an EU that clings to an outdated bloc mentality and fails to adapt to global transformations.
“The path is risky,” Orban admits, “but if our calculations are correct, Hungary could gain more maneuvering space in a multipolar world than its size would typically allow.”
In the short term, this means enduring mounting pressure from Brussels. However, with Trump back in contention, the balance of power within the West is shifting, raising the stakes for sovereigntist governments like Hungary’s. Yet, a Trump presidency could bring relief—removing U.S. diplomatic pressure and offering crucial support.
Orban aligned himself with Trump long before it became acceptable in Europe. While many Western leaders distanced themselves from the former U.S. president, Orban made a calculated bet, likely reasoning that even if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, U.S. pressure on Hungary wouldn’t intensify beyond what it already was under Joe Biden. Now, with Trump making a strong comeback, Orban’s gamble appears to be paying off.
A Trump victory would likely ease U.S. efforts to challenge Hungary’s domestic policies. More importantly, a Republican administration sharing Orban’s nationalist and civilization-based worldview could legitimize Hungary’s unconventional foreign policy. Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine conflict aligns with Orban’s long-standing calls for peace, potentially elevating Hungary’s influence within European debates.
Critics often dismiss Hungary’s foreign policy as unorthodox, but that assumption rests on the belief that the liberal global order remains dominant. In reality, that order is weakening. Orban champions a “realist-nationalist” approach, prioritizing sovereignty and national interest over ideological constraints. He argues that a nation’s foreign policy should balance idealism (national identity) with realism (practical interests).
Despite its small size, Hungary under Orban behaves like a country determined to set its own course. It has resisted both soft and hard pressures to conform to Western foreign policy dictates, choosing instead to build ties with the East and the Global South. This strategy, which Orban calls “national realism,” ensures Hungary remains active in all major economic regions rather than being restricted to a single bloc.
As global power shifts, Hungary’s balancing act becomes even more critical. With the rise of the Global South, changes in U.S. foreign policy, and the EU’s declining influence, Budapest is expanding its outreach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Turkic states, and other non-Western partners. The goal is to secure Hungary’s future while maintaining autonomy within the EU.
This approach has been in motion for at least 15 years, but as the West faces stagnation and internal crises, Orban sees an opportunity. He believes the future lies not with Brussels or Berlin but with emerging powers in Central Asia, China, and the Arab world. Hungary cannot afford to be confined within an EU that clings to an outdated bloc mentality and fails to adapt to global transformations.
“The path is risky,” Orban admits, “but if our calculations are correct, Hungary could gain more maneuvering space in a multipolar world than its size would typically allow.”
In the short term, this means enduring mounting pressure from Brussels. However, with Trump back in contention, the balance of power within the West is shifting, raising the stakes for sovereigntist governments like Hungary’s. Yet, a Trump presidency could bring relief—removing U.S. diplomatic pressure and offering crucial support.
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