Will Bangladesh Army Step In Again To Restore Stability In Bangladesh?

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)

By Nitya Chakraborty

Is the Bangladesh Army going to take over control of their politically turbulent country, either from front or behind, to precipitate the holding of early elections? This question is being raised by the seasoned political observers in Dhaka, as the whole of last week was dominated by highly controversial posts on Facebook, Instagram, interviews in YouTube channels and both formal and unofficial interventions by the country's top army officials through statements and meetings.

All this started soon after the stern remarks made by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard last Monday during her visit to India. Gabbard strongly criticized the Yunus government for its failure to protect the security of the Hindu minorities and the interim government's indulgence of the fundamentalist groups with international terrorist connections. Though the Yunus government officially contradicted the observations terming those exaggerated, the signal was there and the political rumour mills started operating saying that the CIA under Gabbard, a Hindu, would be active in Dhaka once again to influence the political process.

Along with this, a Facebook post by a leading spokesman of the newly set up political party National Citizens Party (NCP), mainly by the August movement students, created a furore in political circles. This leader claimed that the army chief had a meeting with the their delegation last week and a proposal was given that the national elections should be held early with the participation of all political parties, including revamped Awami League. The Army proposal, according to the NCP leader, was that it would be a new Awami League without Sheikh Hasina and his associates. The participation of a weakened Awami League would give inclusivity to the general elections.

Hasnat Abdullah, the student leader of NCP, mentioned on his page that while they were being pressured into agreeing to this, but they have refused. According to Hasnat, the Army Chief threatened them of consequences. Abdallah then mentioned that this must be an India-inspired plan to rehabilitate Awami League through the Army, and that the NCP would never agree to this. Dhaka reports say that the Army chief Waqar-uz-Zaman, who is known as a centrist nationalist in the army, held a high level meeting on Sunday March 23 noon and discussed with all the GOC commanders as also the Navy and Air Force chiefs the present political situation in Bangladesh and the open castigations by the student leaders of the army including its chief.

General Zaman who, according to Dhaka sources has been actively resisting pressure from pro-Islamic army officials to allow for Pakistan Army's entry into sensitive areas, took views from the top military officials on what should be the task of the Army. The consensus was that the Army must ensure early national elections with transparency and the Army should have more powers to control the law and order situation in the country which the police administration of Yunus government had failed to maintain. The army people were angry that the student agitators held demonstrations early in the week before the cantonment against the army and hurled abuses. After much persuasion, the protestors dispersed.

See also Tension Is Preset In Opposition's Equations With Election Commission

Interestingly, the role of CIA is currently under intensive discussion in Bangladesh among the political parties and students activists following an interview given by Asif Mohammad, Adviser to the interim government head Dr. Muhammad Yunus to a TV channel last Friday. He said the July-August protesters were in touch with the US embassy from the beginning. He even mentioned that if Sheikh Hasina would not have left for India on August 5, there could have been an army revolt to displace her. His comments led the political circles to link the July-August 2024 developments with the Biden government's open hostility to the Sheikh Hasina regime from 2023 onwards.

As the latest political scenario unfolds in Bangladesh seven and half months after the installation of the Yunus government on August 8, 2024, three trends have emerged.

First, the Army wants to hold early elections in Bangladesh and it does not want to exclude the Awami Party altogether. The BNP, the largest opposition party and the party with government experience, is agreeable to this stand of Army. BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman addressed the BNP cadres in a virtual address from London on Sunday, March 23, the same day the Army was holding its own meeting. The tone was sober. He said that the people who ousted Sheikh Hasina on August 5 had supported political parties with expectations, those have to be fulfilled.

The BNP strategy is that an emaciated Awami League without Sheikh Hasina and other senior leaders who will be under trial, should be allowed to take part. That will prove the inclusiveness of the electoral process unlike the 2024 elections when the opposition parties including BNP boycotted.. The BNP is the most organized political party at the moment with its units in every village. The party is confident of coming back to power..Begum Zia, Tarique.s mother is expected to be back next month following medical treatment in London.. The BNP is preparing for massive campaign under her leadership from May onwards.

Second, the role of the new party NCP and its curious relationship with BNP and the Army. NCP is still like a platform dominated by the students both of varying leftist shades and right-wing Jamaatis. The trade union wing has been just announced. The leadership has announced that the Awami League has been rejected by the people through August 5 upsurge. So there is no question of Awami League's participation in elections. This means that the NCP, which was founded only on February 28 this year, will be in confrontation with both the BNP and the Army. In fact, at the Sunday meeting of the army officers, many participants were reported to have strongly protested against the anti-Army comments in media by the NCP students leaders, but General Zaman reportedly told them to keep patience.

See also Crude Oil's Downward Spiral Has Just Begun; Tariffs Take Time To Sink In

Third is the attitude of the USA and China. Though US President Donald Trump mentioned during his February 13 press conference in the White House that his friend Prime Minister Narendra Modi would look at the issue and Gabbard gave similar signal last week, Washington has its own interests, which may not suit fully New Delhi's approach to Dhaka. Gabbard's statement has led the Yunus government to lean increasingly more towards China and Pakistan. The US policy makers also are following developments in Dhaka now, though Trump's own preoccupation right now is with Ukraine and Gaza. The U.S. may take some more time to decide whom to back in the general elections. Will the U.S. go by India's advice?

As regards China, the Chinese ambassador in Dhaka has done extensive spadework among all the political stakeholders in Bangladeshi politics. The high-level delegations from BNP and Jamaat have already visited Beijing and had discussions with the senior Chinese leaders in the last few months. Moves are on to invite a delegation of the newly set up NCP to China also. Head of the government Dr. Yunus is going to China on a four day trip on March 26. He is expected to come back with lot of Chinese promises to make Bangladesh the manufacturing hub by setting up factories in different parts of the country. China has gained in terms of its popular image in Bangladesh after August 5. China will try to take advantage of all these. China will have contacts with whoever comes to power in next elections.

For India, though the Narendra Modi government has made massive help to Bangladesh in the last ten years, its acceptability has now at its lowest ebb. It is to be seen how India makes use of Trump-Modi bonhomie to improve its ties with Dhaka . Equally important is how finally the Bangladesh Army collectively decides to intervene in the fractured Bangladesh polity. (IPA Service )

Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com . We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.

MENAFN25032025000152002308ID1109352736