Substantial Fed Rate Cuts Required To Significantly Reduce UAE Mortgage Costs

The United States federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a direct impact on the United Arab Emirates' financial landscape, owing to the dirham's peg to the U.S. dollar. Consequently, changes in the Fed's interest rates influence borrowing costs in the UAE, affecting sectors such as Real estate and personal finance. However, experts suggest that only substantial rate cuts by the Fed would lead to noticeable reductions in UAE mortgage borrowing costs.

In December 2024, the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis points cut, adjusting the federal funds target rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision was mirrored by the UAE Central Bank, which reduced its base rate on overnight deposits to 4.40%. Despite these adjustments, the impact on mortgage rates within the UAE has been minimal, with experts indicating that more significant cuts are necessary to effect substantial changes in borrowing costs.

Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, noted that while lower rates in the Gulf Cooperation Council could stimulate growth in sectors sensitive to credit conditions, such as real estate and domestic spending, the modest 25 bps reduction is unlikely to lead to significant decreases in mortgage rates. He emphasized that more substantial rate cuts would be required to make a noticeable difference in borrowing costs for consumers.

The UAE's real estate market, a critical component of the nation's economy, is particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Lower mortgage rates can enhance affordability, potentially boosting demand for residential properties. However, with current mortgage rates ranging from 2.5% to 4.5%, the recent 25 bps cut has not substantially altered the borrowing landscape. Analysts suggest that a more pronounced reduction in rates would be necessary to stimulate significant growth in property transactions.

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