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JPMorgan declares US recession alarm
(MENAFN) JPMorgan has cautioned that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies could slow economic growth and increase the likelihood of a recession in 2025.
Speaking to reporters in Singapore on Wednesday, JPMorgan’s chief global economist, Bruce Kasman, estimated a 40% chance of a US recession this year. He warned that if Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners take effect in April, the risk could climb even higher, potentially discouraging investment in the country.
“We are increasingly concerned about the US economy,” Kasman stated, noting that while he has yet to revise his forecasts, the risk has risen from 30% earlier this year to 40%. If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could surpass 50%, he added.
Currently, JPMorgan predicts US economic growth of 2% for 2025, but this projection remains subject to change. Other major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have already lowered their forecasts to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have unsettled financial markets, with investors unsure whether the levies are a permanent measure or a negotiation strategy. In February, Trump announced sweeping tariffs to protect American industries. Last week, he raised tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada to 25%, doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, and delayed some increases until April 2. He has also threatened to introduce a global reciprocal tariff system, requiring every country to match the duties it imposes on US products.
A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, prompting retaliatory measures from both the EU and Canada.
When asked by Fox News on Sunday whether the US was heading for a recession, Trump dismissed concerns, describing the current period as a transition. “We’re bringing wealth back to America,” he asserted.
Speaking to reporters in Singapore on Wednesday, JPMorgan’s chief global economist, Bruce Kasman, estimated a 40% chance of a US recession this year. He warned that if Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners take effect in April, the risk could climb even higher, potentially discouraging investment in the country.
“We are increasingly concerned about the US economy,” Kasman stated, noting that while he has yet to revise his forecasts, the risk has risen from 30% earlier this year to 40%. If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could surpass 50%, he added.
Currently, JPMorgan predicts US economic growth of 2% for 2025, but this projection remains subject to change. Other major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have already lowered their forecasts to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have unsettled financial markets, with investors unsure whether the levies are a permanent measure or a negotiation strategy. In February, Trump announced sweeping tariffs to protect American industries. Last week, he raised tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada to 25%, doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, and delayed some increases until April 2. He has also threatened to introduce a global reciprocal tariff system, requiring every country to match the duties it imposes on US products.
A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, prompting retaliatory measures from both the EU and Canada.
When asked by Fox News on Sunday whether the US was heading for a recession, Trump dismissed concerns, describing the current period as a transition. “We’re bringing wealth back to America,” he asserted.
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