Xi's China Guarantees Asia-Pacific Another Year Of Rough Sailing

Beyond Northeast Asia, Chinese political warfare efforts throughout the Pacific Islands continue, and Beijing insinuates itself more deeply into nearly every nation and territory (even American ones) in the Pacific.

It all resembles Japan in the 1920s and 1930s-aiming to dominate and to drive the United States out of the Asia-Pacific region.

Xi is not going to ease off and will likely turn up the heat everywhere.

The only restraints on Xi are the Americans and Donald Trump.

Nobody in the Biden administration scared the People's Republic of China. But now they are gone.

Beijing isn't sure what to think about Trump – but didn't like him much the first time around.

Now he's talking about serious tariffs on Chinese imports, for starters.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been wise to the PRC threat for years. Beijing even slapped a travel ban on then-Senator Rubio for talking about the CCP's stilettoing of human rights in China and beyond.

Rubio also did something a couple years ago that terrified Chinese communist leadership: He required the US Intelligence Community to report on the overseas wealth of CCP leaders – inclluding Xi Jinping. The report was due months ago. The new administration might insist the intelligence community do what it's told.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is also calling for“peace through strength” and called out“Communist China” by name.

Yet, at least one senior official at DOD is talking about“cooperation spirals” with the Chinese communists. The idea being that the US makes a concession – say, reducing forces in the Asia-Pacific – and the Chinese will respond with one of their own. Leading to a love-fest as each side outdoes the other.

This is the foreign policy equivalent of the Biden administration's spendthrift“modern monetary theory” and it threatens to do to the US position in the Asia-Pacific what MMT did to the US economy over the last four years – devastate it.

Not so long ago, this writer heard another rumored senior DoD appointee say the US should not defend Taiwan – since if it lost a fight the results would be calamitous. Others in the Trump administration appear half-hearted, if that, about defending Taiwan from communist enslavement.

So, surrender in advance? Hell of a policy.

And there's Elon Musk. He and Tesla are in bed with the Chinese. Will he keep the Administration from leaning on the PRC? Nobody knows.

Rather than waiting to find out – or fretting that Trump might ask for more money for US forces in Japan or ask Japan to do something it doesn't want to do – why not pretend the Americans aren't around?

And then consider what Japan needs to do to defend itself alone. Japan won't be able to handle everything. But it will get farther than if it allows pathologic dependence on the Americans to justify avoidance of doing much of anything.

Japan is trying to build defense ties with everyone – Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, India and Italy, among others. This is nice, but it matters little in terms of hard power. Only the Americans provide that.

Fortunately for Tokyo, the Americans aren't going anywhere.

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Or at least I hope they're not. The so-called“restrainers” in the Trump administration just might decide that forward-deployed US forces in Japan are unnecessary and even provocative.

Tokyo needs to pay close attention to this mind-set in Washington.

But also remember, the American people (and even parts of the US government) are far more willing to help those who help themselves.

So Tokyo ought to act like it's on its own – while thanking God (and Washington) that it isn't (yet).

But get ready now.

Instead of preparing for a war over Taiwan, the Japanese government is focusing on evacuating people from the Nansei Shoto in the event of trouble.

Wars aren't won by evacuations.

If Tokyo needs some help knowing what to do, ask Hawaii to send out some war planners to tell them.

But if Japan really wants to“preempt” Trump, have the Japanese ambassador arrange a meeting with the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, and the national security advisor and say:“What do you need from us? Just tell us.”

The year 2025 is about five years late to ask this. But best to do it now. Tokyo may find 2026 is too late.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self Defense Force, and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book, When China Attacks: A Warning To America .

This article was first published by The Sunday Guardian Live . It is republished with permission.

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