Russia's 'Shadow Fleet' Stirring Expanded War Fears In The Baltic

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This is an activity conducted at a level below that of warfare, designed to send certain signals to adversarial nations. The purpose could be to send a message that the capability exists to essentially cut off and isolate nations from the outside world.

These cables are extremely valuable. They are used to transport gas, electricity and internet traffic between nations. And recent incidents have led to a reduction in the capacity of electricity that can be transported, although this has not yet caused widespread power outages.

Another concern is that damage to internet cables can hold up the passage of information generated by the financial markets. This is particularly vulnerable due to its time-sensitive nature .

Map: PorcupenWorks / Shutterstock How can cables be protected?

Protecting the cables is a challenging task. There is little that can physically be done to prevent other vessels crossing seas and oceans due to the concept of freedom of navigation of the high seas . And Russia has a right of passage for its ships, for example, from St Petersburg to the North Sea.

Investigations into apparent threats can be conducted without actually seizing the vessel or impeding its progress in any way. This can done through the use of GPS tracking data and combining that with other evidence, such as eyewitness testimony.

While these cables can get damaged through natural means, targeting them could be a way for a nation to operate against its adversaries in a more covert manner and below the threshold of armed conflict .

The Finnish navy seized a ship suspected of involvement in sabotage.

Much of the disruption to the traffic on these undersea cables is probably the result of accidental activity . But there have been concerns about greater activity by Russian military vessels in their attempts to map the Baltic sea floor .

The most likely reason for the increased Russian sea mapping activity is to gain a greater understanding of the location of these cables. But it could be sending a message that this critical infrastructure is difficult to defend and vulnerable to attack and sabotage .

Many merchant vessels are registered in overseas territories, and ownership can be hard to track. This gives a degree of plausible deniability over who may have ordered or overseen the operations that might have damaged cables .

It makes it more challenging for action to be taken, but has given rise to accusations that these ships are acting as Russia's“shadow fleet.”